Price action: November soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $12.96 1/4, but lost 44 cents on the week, while December soymeal fell $2.30 to $385.80 and ended the week down $6.30. December soyoil rose 122 points to 59.62 cents but gave up 244 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Corrective gains in soyoil futures lent soybean futures mild support in today’s session, while meal weakness limited gains along with persisting U.S. dollar strength. Traders will continue to focus on harvest reports and begin to position ahead of the government’s release of the Sept. 29 Quarterly Stocks Report, with a looming government shutdown increasing the odds of no October Production Report, which is set for release Oct. 12. If a shutdown occurs, USDA’s data collection for the monthly report will end at midnight on Sept. 30. The release of the October report will largely depend on how long a shutdown lasts and how much data the National Ag Statistics Service (NASS) is able to collect prior to Oct. 1.
30-day outlook: Harvest conditions throughout the Midwest will continue to prove important in addition to South American weather as planting progresses in earnest. World Weather Inc. forecasts wetter weather in the U.S. western Corn Belt late this weekend and in the northern U.S. Plains, which will disrupt summer crop maturation and harvest progress, but it should not last long enough to be a serious problem. Meanwhile, good harvest weather is expected in the eastern Midwest and Delta where dry weather is most likely, with no serious changes to navigable river levels expected.
The forecaster notes Argentina and Brazil may see increasing rainfall as the end of the month nears, which would bode well for early spring planting.
90-day outlook: U.S. export demand will continue to be a focus amid a weak start to the 2023-24 marketing year, with number one importer, China, consistently looking to Brazil to fulfill their import needs, amid plentiful supplies. Meanwhile, a robust U.S. dollar has consistently kept U.S. supplies at a premium in the global marketplace. Currently, U.S. soybean export commitments are trailing year-ago by nearly 34%, amid already baked-in expectations of a 10% year-over-year drop.
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