Price action: May soybeans fell 19 1/2 cents to $11.92 1/2 and closed 5 3/4 cents lower on the week. May soymeal fell $5.20 to $339.10 but rallied $4.40 from a week ago. May soyoil plunged 115 points to 47.64 cents and lost 178 points on the week.
5-day outlook: Soybeans ended the week under pressure, giving up a notable portion of mid-week gains as traders took profits into the weekend. With next week comes USDA’s Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks Reports, which are sure to heighten volatility for the soy complex. In its Annual Agricultural Outlook, USDA projected soybean acres to rise 4.7% from 2023 to 87.5 million acres, though next week could bring a surprise as results will be survey-based. While the government’s grain stocks update will provide important market information, historically, acreage figures have had a greater influence on post-report price moves in soybean futures. Look for consolidative trade ahead of Thursday’s reports, which will come ahead of the Good Friday holiday.
30-day outlook: Production updates from South America and U.S. weather will have the greatest market impact for soybeans over the next month. Many questions loom over the size of the Brazilian crop in particular as estimates to date prove to be rather wide. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier notes acreage estimates in Brazil have been notoriously difficult given that agricultural expansion is occurring in relatively remote regions of the country. Moreover, he states final acreage is usually unknown in Brazil until it can be “backed into” by using final export, domestic disappearance and carryover numbers divided by the nationwide yield, which can also be ambiguous.
Meanwhile, planters across the U.S. will soon begin rolling in earnest, making weather an increasing market factor over the next several months. World Weather Inc. notes the Delta and southeast will see frequent and sometimes heavy rain through Wednesday that will stall fieldwork in much of the region while some local flooding may occur. The heaviest rain is expected Monday into Tuesday from the Delta into northern Alabama. The forecaster notes the Midwest will see regular rounds of rain and snow during the next two weeks with moisture welcome in many western areas. While fieldwork will be slowed at times, much of the precip should not be great enough to cause excessively muddy conditions in most areas. Soil moisture is low in many areas from eastern South Dakota to Iowa and eastern Nebraska and significant precip is needed before planting season.
90-day outlook: U.S. soybean exports have proven tepid as of late as fresh South American supplies fill the global marketplace. However, USDA’s export sales data for the week ended March 14 reflected a 31% week-over-week increase, with soybean sales rising 86% above the four-week average.
Further adding to the global export complexity, will be increased crush from top meal exporter Argentina as supplies are likely to rebound following last year’s historic drought, though a subpar Brazilian bean crop could heighten U.S. export prospects.
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