Price action: November soybeans surged 77 1/2 cents to $13.43 1/4, gaining 33 1/4 cents on the week and a whopping $1.96 3/4 on the month. August meal rose $17.00 to $413.90, for a $6.50 week-over-week gain, and $26.10 increase on the month. August soyoil rose the limit of 400 points to 61.70 cents, rising 370 points on the week and notching a solid monthly gain of 1,539 points.
5-day outlook: USDA’s Acreage Report sent bullish shockwaves across the market in the wake of a 4-million-plus acre variance from the average pre-report estimate. The survey-based report projected 2023 U.S. planted acreage of 83.5 million, well below expectations of around 87.7 million and down 5% from year-ago. Soybean acreage was reported to be unchanged or lower in 21 of 29 surveyed states. USDA also noted that at the time of the survey, conducted from May 30 to June 15, 8.22 million acres of soybeans were yet to be planted. Furthermore, June 1 stocks landed lower-than-expected at 796 million bu., which was below pre-report estimates of 812 million bu. and is down 18% from a year ago. Shortened by the Fourth of July holiday, next week will see follow-up trade from today’s data.
30-day outlook: With notably smaller soybean acres, weather over the next month will be especially significant. Market volatility could prove unprecedented as the most crucial growing phase will occur in the days to come. The Midwest weather pattern has seemingly done an about-face in the past week, turning from terribly dry throughout most of June to stormy and wet to the end of the month. Rains are expected to continue into July, further bolstering soil moisture, but could likely be accompanied by severe weather, as seen throughout the Corn Belt over the past few days.
90-day outlook: Export activity will remain a focus as the 2022-23 marketing-year nears its end, and a fresh one begins. The data will continue to help provide insight into global demand and the world economy. Since Brazilian harvest efforts of a record crop began earlier this year, U.S. export business has largely dwindled as importing countries look to South America’s fresh supply to fulfill their needs. Export commitments are running 12.8% behind year-ago and lag USDA’s projections for the year by nearly 10% with two months remaining in the marketing year.
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