Price action: November soybeans rose 2 1/2 cents to $13.08 1/2 and nearer the session low. September soybean meal fell $5.60 at $412.70 and near the session low. Prices hit a three-week-low today. September bean oil rose 23 points to 64.21 cents and closed near mid-range.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans saw slight gains today as Corn Belt weather forecasts for next week have turned warmer and drier. However, the soybean meal futures market is listing and that is limiting buying interest in soybeans. World Weather Inc. today said a drier weather pattern will occur Tuesday through Aug. 23, with temperatures expected to rise late next week into the following weekend.
Also supportive for the soy complex today, USDA this morning announced daily U.S. soybean sales of 251,000 MT to China for delivery during 2023-24.
Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report is expected to show U.S. soybean sales in the 2022-23 marketing year of zero to 300,000 MT, and sales of 300,000 to 1.5 million MT in the 2023-24 marketing year.
Traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand report. Since 2000 the USDA U.S. soybean production forecast has been above the trade average estimate eight times and below 15 times. However, six out of last eight years have flipped to USDA’s forecast exceeding trade averages. Of the 15 years the trade forecast was greater than the USDA forecast, soybean prices gained on report day 10 times and declined 5 times. There have even been price gains when the USDA production forecast was up to 150 million bushels more than expected. In general, daily price performance is generally a tossup between 50 million bushels plus or minus between trade and USDA differences for soybeans. Differences approaching 100 million bushels, plus or minus, start to move prices.
Technical analysis: The soybean bean bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical objective for the soybean bulls is closing November prices above solid resistance at $13.79. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.56 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $13.27 and then at $13.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $12.82 1/2 and then at $12.70.
The soybean meal bulls have lost their slight overall near-term technical advantage and are fading. The next upside price objective for the meal bulls is to produce a close in September futures above solid technical resistance at the March high of $454.40. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $400.00. First resistance comes in at this week’s high of $422.80 and then at $430.00. First support is seen at $410.00 and then at $405.00.
Soybean oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A nine-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bean oil bulls is closing September prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 69.12 cents. Bean oil bears’ next downside technical price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 65.80 cents and then at 67.30 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 62.11 cents and then at 61.00 cents.
