Price action: November soybeans rose 42 cents to $13.69 3/4, near the session high and above the 200-day moving average, while August meal rose $11.40 to $422.30. August soyoil gained 135 points to 65.69 cents.
Fundamental analysis: Soybeans were able to regain Wednesday’s losses following USDA’s bearish supply and demand data. Traders are seemingly shaking off the data and turning their focus toward late-July and August weather. A daily new-crop export sale of 315,704 MT to Mexico, along with a reduction in Brazilian production and outside market strength, were additional variables contributing to the post-report rally. Conab trimmed its Brazilian soybean crop by 1.2 MMT to 154.5 MMT and left the country’s 2022-23 export forecast at 95.6 MMT. Crude oil futures took strength from easing inflationary concerns as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) marked its smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021, while the U.S. dollar continued its retreat following the report.
World Weather Inc. continues to forecast a transition to drier weather beginning July 21 through at least July 27, leaving much of the region in need of a boost of rain, with rains expected through next Thursday not likely to leave a large part of the region with an abundance of soil moisture.
USDA reported weekly export sales of 80,600 MT for the week ended July 6, which were down 57% form the previous week and 76% below the four-week average. Net sales of 209,200 MT were reported for 2023-24. Traders anticipated sales to range from 0 to 300,000 MT for 2022-23 and 100,000 to 600,0000 MT for 2023-24.
Technical analysis: Soybean bulls were back in full force today, with the new-crop November contract capturing a close above initial resistance of $13.62 1/4. The move positions the camp to make a solid run toward the next area of resistance around $13.96 1/2. From there, additional resistance stands at $14.15 1/4 as well as the Dec. 30 high of $14.27 3/4. A turn lower, however, will find notable support around 10-, 200- and 20-day moving averages of $13.37 3/4, $13.32 1/4 and $13.25 1/4, respectively. A breach of the area will find bears regaining control, though additional support lies at $13.09, at the 100-day moving average of $12.89 1/4 as well as the 40-day of $12.55 1/2.
August meal gained technical ground, with a close just above the technically significant 200-day moving average of $422.00. An extended push to the upside will encounter additional resistance at the 100-day moving average of $426.20, then at $431.30 and $437.00. Conversely, solid support lies around the 10-20- and 40-day moving averages of $409.90, $408.40 and $402.90, respectively. A turn below these levels will find bears grabbing technical traction to prepare for a battle at $$399.50 and again at $389.30.
August soyoil continues to find solid resistance at 65.76 cents, though bulls are seemingly pausing before making a run above the area towards 67.18 cents and 68.46 cents. Conversely, a push lower will find initial support at the 10-day moving average of 63.36 cents, then at 61.78 cents and the 20-day moving average of 60.21 cents. From there lies the 200-day moving average of 58.61 cents and the 100- and 40-day moving averages of 55.02 and 54.69 cents.
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