USDA has started using global exporters’ data to estimate China’s soybean imports because a wide gap emerged between shipping figures from producing nations and Chinese customs data, a USDA official told Reuters. Chinese customs data that USDA historically used to estimate imports had previously aligned with export data from producers like the U.S. and Brazil, said Joanna Hitchner, who oversees soybean supply and demand estimates for USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board. But the numbers began deviating in 2023, and USDA this month increased its estimate for China’s 2022-2023 imports by 3.6% from February to reflect exporters’ data, she said. Hitchner said she did not know why Chinese import data and exporters’ data diverged.
USDA this month also increased its estimates for China’s soybean crush from 2020-21 to 2022-23, following a years-long review of in-country estimates and supply data. “We don’t take changing our methodology lightly,” Hitchner said. “This is a very thought-out move for the crush.”
With such a wide variance between USDA and Conab on Brazil’s soybean and corn crop estimates, we asked Hitchner about forecasting production there and whether changes to that process are also needed. We’ll report those details if/when she or someone else at USDA responds. Learn more about Pro Farmer membership options.
