Two UC-Davis analysts in a report highlighted that satisfying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) goals would require a significant increase in soybean plantings, almost by 50%. Conversely, relying solely on corn ethanol would necessitate a lesser increase in land area, around 9%, due to its higher yields per acre.
Professor Aaron Smith and doctoral student Andrew Swanson, in an article for the American Enterprise Institute, cautioned that a swift expansion into SAF could reignite debates over the food versus fuel dilemma, potentially prompting changes in land use for conservation and crop production akin to those seen during the implementation of Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) policies.
To produce 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030, as targeted by the Biden administration, an estimated 8 to 11 million acres of corn or 35 to 50 million acres of soybeans would be required, depending on the rate of crop yield improvements over the next six years. Currently, SAF production stands at 16 million gallons annually.
Corn and soybeans collectively occupy a substantial portion of agricultural land in the U.S., totaling nearly 179 million acres last year. Various strategies can be considered to meet the increased demand for these crops, including reallocating land from other competing crops.
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