USDA now predicts an $11.0 billion ag trade surplus for fiscal year (FY) 2022. That is up $500 million from its prior outlook and $2.1 billion above FY 2021. U.S. ag exports are now expected to be a record $183.5 billion in fiscal year (FY) 2022, up $8.0 billion from its November outlook and an increase of $11.3 billion from FY 2021. USDA hiked its FY 2022 ag import forecast by $7.5 billion from November to a record $172.5 billion, which would be a $9.2 billion increase from last year.
Soybean exports are forecast $2.9 billion higher to $31.3 billion on higher prices and lower global supplies. Soybean meal exports are forecast up $1.3 billion on higher unit values. Overall, grain and feed exports are projected to increase by $1.4 billion to $42.9 billion, led by higher wheat and feed and fodder forecasts. Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports are forecast at a record $39.2 billion, $500 million higher than the previous forecast, with gains in beef and dairy more than offsetting declines in pork. The projection for ethanol exports is unchanged at $2.9 billion, although still a record if realized.
China is expected to remain the largest U.S. agricultural market. Mexico is forecast to overtake Canada as the second-largest U.S. agricultural market.
