U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are projected at $170.5 billion, up $500 million from November, as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook. Ag imports in FY 2025 are forecast at $219.5 billion, an increase of $4.0 billion from the November projection, largely driven by higher import values of horticultural products, sugar and tropical products. That would leave the U.S. with a record ag trade deficit of $49 billion, up from the previous projection of $45.5 billion and sharply higher than the $31.8 billion deficit in FY 2024.
Mexico is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. ag exports at a record $30.2 billion, a $300-million increase from the previous outlook based on strong sales of dairy, wheat and other products during the first quarter. Exports to Canada are forecast down $800 million to $28.4 billion due to weaker-than-expected shipments to date. Exports to China were cut $1.3 billion to $22.0 billion, largely due to reduced prospects for U.S. soybeans, grains and cotton.
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