USDA Widens Outlook for Already-Record Ag Trade Deficit

U.S. agricultural import and export projections for fiscal year 2025.

trade container ship
trade container ship
(Farm Journal)

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are projected at $170.5 billion, up $500 million from November, as higher grain and feed exports offset reductions to the oilseed outlook. Ag imports in FY 2025 are forecast at $219.5 billion, an increase of $4.0 billion from the November projection, largely driven by higher import values of horticultural products, sugar and tropical products. That would leave the U.S. with a record ag trade deficit of $49 billion, up from the previous projection of $45.5 billion and sharply higher than the $31.8 billion deficit in FY 2024.

Mexico is forecast to remain the largest market for U.S. ag exports at a record $30.2 billion, a $300-million increase from the previous outlook based on strong sales of dairy, wheat and other products during the first quarter. Exports to Canada are forecast down $800 million to $28.4 billion due to weaker-than-expected shipments to date. Exports to China were cut $1.3 billion to $22.0 billion, largely due to reduced prospects for U.S. soybeans, grains and cotton.

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