Price action: December SRW wheat rose 8 1/4 cents to $5.79 3/4 and near mid-range. For the week December SRW rose 11 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat futures fell 6 cents to $6.69 and near the session low. For the week, December HRW fell 4 3/4 cents. December spring wheat futures fell 1 1/2 cents to $7.22 but gained a penny and a half on the week.
5-day outlook: This week the winter wheat futures markets continued their choppy and sideways trading at lower price levels; look for more of the same next week. SRW garnered some strength today as USDA reported a daily sale of 181,000 MT of U.S. SRW wheat to China for delivery during 2023-24 – the second daily SRW wheat sale to China in just over a week. Look for wheat traders to continue to look to corn and soybean futures markets for daily price direction.
30-day outlook: Weather in major world wheat-growing regions is coming closer to the front burner of wheat futures markets. World Weather Inc. today reported Russia and Ukraine winter crop areas still need greater precipitation to ensure the best winter crop establishment. India’s rain in the north later this weekend and into next week could help get winter wheat off to a better-than-expected start for an El Nino year. Dryness in Western Australia is still a concern for wheat production. Brazil wheat is still facing a grain quality decline because of too much moisture. Argentina is still dealing with drought, although recent showers and those coming will offer some temporary relief. U.S. hard red winter wheat and wheat in the Pacific Northwest will need greater rain for improved crop establishment, said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: USDA this morning reported better-than-expected weekly U.S. wheat sales of 652,000 MT for 2023-24, a marketing-year high. Sales were up notably from the previous week and 67% from the four-week average. U.S. wheat sales abroad will have to continue to improve in the coming months for wheat futures prices to pull out of their downtrends and build fresh price uptrends.
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