Wet weather in April and May across the portions of the Plains, Corn Belt, Delta and Southeast has raised confusion about prospects for below-normal rainfall and above-normal temps in the Plains and western Corn Belt during summer. A quick transition from El Niño to La Niña and a dominating lunar cycle has six analog years, all of which suggest below-normal rainfall and warmer temps during summer, according to World Weather Inc. But the U.S. Climate Prediction Center models now suggest a slower development of La Niña – in July instead of June.
World Weather says, “This change favors less extreme dryness in the Plains, Midwest and Delta. Odds of seeing another 2012 or 1988 in the summer of 2024 remains low. A disastrous summer crop production year does not seem very likely, but there is still potential for some moisture stress and a threat to yields in the Plains and western Corn Belt at least for a while. The situation for summer weather still warrants a close watch, but if you were looking for another 2012-style cut in production in the United States you may want to rethink it.”
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