Price action: December SRW wheat rose 21 1/4 cents to $6.80 3/4 and near the session high. For the week, December SRW rose 14 1/4 cents. December HRW wheat gained 22 3/4 cents to $8.33 1/2, near the daily high and for the week up 14 cents. December spring wheat rose 22 1/4 cents to $8.89 1/2, a 35-cent gain on the week.
5-day outlook: Friday’s technically bullish weekly high closes in winter wheat futures suggest follow-through chart-based buying next week. Wheat traders will continue to follow the lead of the corn futures market, which has rebounded smartly from this week’s low, to suggest more upside for that market, too.
Weather and winter wheat harvest progress will continue to be on the front burner of the futures markets next week. The HRW harvest progress has been slow, as seen by the Kansas harvest at 59% complete as of last Sunday, versus the five-year average at 84%. World Weather Inc. today said some localized pockets of HRW country may still get too much rain, leading to possible winter wheat quality declines and some additional flooding. Still, a majority of the unharvested wheat will remain in favorable condition, said the forecaster. In the northern Plains, World Weather said dryness will become more of a concern in the next seven days due to limited rainfall. “A heavier, more widespread rain event is needed and is unlikely in the next two weeks; though, some shower and thunderstorm activity will occur, especially in eastern production areas.” Alberta declared an “agricultural disaster” this week, with the HRS situation in Saskatchewan said to be even worse. The North Dakota wheat crop is also beginning to deteriorate. The drought may power an HRS rally in the near term and in turn support winter wheat prices.
30-day outlook: The keen uncertainty around the extension of the Black Sea grain-shipping deal will likely keep a floor under wheat futures prices in the coming weeks. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan said today the Black Sea grain deal will hopefully be extended beyond the July 17 deadline due to efforts by Turkey and the United Nations.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index dropped sharply and hit a 15-month low this week. Meantime, USDA this week reported U.S. wheat export sales of 395,700 MT for 2023-24, down slightly from the previous week. The depreciation of the greenback should make U.S. wheat more price-competitive on the world trade markets in the coming weeks.
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