Price action: May SRW wheat rose the 50-cent daily limit to $9.84 and May HRW wheat also rose the 50-cent limit, ending at $10.03. Prices hit contract and 14-year highs today. March spring wheat leapt 59.75 cents to $10.53 3/4. HRW and SRW futures price limits expand to 75 cents tomorrow.
Fundamental analysis: Major global grain producers and exporters Russia and Ukraine remain in a full-scale war with no end in sight and that’s keeping the grain futures markets unnerved. Ukraine’s exports have stopped and there are ideas Russian shipments out of the Black Sea will be disrupted. Global end-users may need to soon find alternative wheat supplies. The war will remain on the front-burner for the grain markets for the near-term.
U.S. winter and spring wheat crop conditions still favor bulls. World Weather Inc. today reported well above average temperatures through Friday will reduce U.S. winter wheat hardiness. Multiple weather disturbances late Friday through the second week of the outlook will promote some beneficial and needed moisture. However, southwestern areas from Texas Panhandle into southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado may not receive enough precipitation to increase topsoil moisture, said World Weather.
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Technical analysis: Wheat market bulls have the strong near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. SRW bulls’ next upside objective is closing May futures above solid resistance at $10.00. Bears’ next downside objective is closing prices below solid support at $9.00. First resistance is seen at $10.00, then $10.25. First support is seen at $9.50, then today’s low of $9.32 1/4.
HRW bulls’ next upside objective is closing May futures above solid resistance at $10.50. Bears’ next objective is closing prices below solid support at $9.00. First resistance is seen at $10.25, then $10.50. First support is seen at $9.81, then $9.50.
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