Advice: New market advice for wheat hedgers and cash-only marketers was issued on Friday, Feb. 16th. Pro Farmer members received details via text message and email. Sign up here to receive future market alerts.
Price action: March SRW wheat futures fell 6 1/2 cents to $5.60 1/2, nearer the daily low and hit a 2.5-month low. For the week, March SRW lost 35 3/4 cents. March HRW wheat futures fell 8 1/2 cents to $5.67 1/4, nearer the daily low and hit another contract low today. For the week, March HRW fell 34 1/4 cents. March spring wheat fell 3 1/4 cents to $6.54 3/4 and gave up 29 1/2 cents on the week.
5-day outlook: It was a dreadful week for the winter wheat futures market bulls, as SRW and HRW saw new for-the-move lows that included technically bearish downside “breakouts” and weekly low closes today. That sets the stage for chart-based follow-through selling pressure early next week. Once again, wheat traders will look to the corn futures market for direction, with corn also sliding this week and hitting a new contract low today.
30-day outlook: Wheat traders will continue to monitor weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere in the coming weeks and heading into springtime. World Weather Inc. today said not much has changed recently. Wheat in China is still rated in good shape as is much of the crop in Europe and many areas across the United States, except possibly the northwestern Plains where winterkill may have occurred in January. Minor northern CIS wheat areas are still vulnerable to spring flooding. None of the recent bitter cold in Russia threatened dormant winter crops because of deep snow cover in the coldest areas. Europe soil moisture is improving for spring crop development and planting, said the forecaster.
90-day outlook: The U.S. dollar index this week hit a three-month high and the USDX has been trending higher since late December. The appreciating greenback that shows no signs up pulling back will likely continue to be a drag on the wheat markets in the coming weeks, making U.S. wheat prices on the world markets even less competitive. U.S. wheat exports very likely need to improve for the wheat futures markets to see sustained price recoveries in the coming months.
What to do: Market recommendations and advice are available to Pro Farmer members only. View membership options.
Hedgers: NEW ADVICE -- Market recommendations and advice are available to Pro Farmer members only. View membership options.
Cash-only marketers: NEW ADVICE -- Market recommendations and advice are available to Pro Farmer members only. View membership options.
