Price action: December SRW wheat futures rose 1 cent to $5.72 1/2, near mid-range and on the week up 4 1/2 cents. December HRW wheat futures lost 4 3/4 cents to $5.64 1/4, for a technically bearish weekly low close today. For the week, December HRW lost 2 1/2 cents. December spring wheat fell 4 3/4 cents to $5.97 3/4, marking a 2-cent loss on the week.
5-day outlook: The winter wheat futures markets spent another week languishing and got little help from a rallying corn futures market that today hit a more-than-four-month high. A strong U.S. dollar index, which hit a four-month high this week, is a significantly bearish “outside-market” weight that is limiting buying interest in wheat futures markets. Today’s USDA supply and demand report contained no surprises for wheat and showed U.S. wheat carryover increased 3 million bu. from last month. USDA put the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.60, down 10 cents from last month’s report.
30-day outlook: With the major U.S. crops now in the bins, trader focus will lean toward weather conditions in major wheat-growing regions of the globe. World Weather Inc. today said recent rain and snow in hard red winter wheat areas and more expected Saturday will lead to much improved winter crop emergence and establishment. Recent rain and snow in Russia’s southern region, eastern Ukraine and western Kazakhstan was also welcome, though more is needed. South and western Australia will continue missing significant rain, but with most of the wheat and barley now filling and maturing the potential for changed production potential is low. Argentina’s central and southern wheat production areas received significant rain recently and more is expected. Southern Brazil weather is favorably mixed. Dry weather across Europe is good for routine farming activity, including the late planting of winter crops in the west, said World Weather.
90-day outlook: USDA Thursday reported U.S. wheat export sales of 374,700 MT during the week ended Oct. 31. That was down 9% from the previous week and down 20% from the four-week average. Exports were a marketing-year low of 236,900 MT. For the wheat futures markets to be able to sustain price uptrends in the coming months, U.S. wheat sales abroad will have to improve. Given that the U.S. dollar index is trending higher and making wheat even less price-competitive on the world markets, better U.S. wheat export sales the next few months is a difficult challenge.
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