Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Brad Kooima, with Kooima Kooima Varilek, says live and feeder cattle futures have bounced off trendline support, at least so far. Grains are positioning ahead of USDA reports, watching weather and tariff news.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says grains took a pause Friday in preparation for the February WASDE but is in the critical price discovery process before planting.
Alan Brugler, A&N Economics, says grains pulled back Friday on profit taking after hitting chart resistance and with uncertainty about trade and administrative policies.
House Republicans, led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), are scrambling to finalize their one-bill proposal, with details expected Monday.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trying to recover after the trifecta that tanked the futures Thursday and pulled down cash as well. Grains are lower on profit taking and SA weather.
The Senate Ag Committee hearing on the economic situation for U.S. agriculture highlighted significant concerns about potential tariffs and their impact on the farming sector.
Dave Chatterton, Strategic Farm Marketing, says grain markets rebounded late session led by wheat.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says ag markets continue to ride the roller coaster of headlines about tariffs and policy changes being imposed by the Trump Administration. This is driving fund and algorithm trading.
This marks a shift from Trump’s first term.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels and that will mean more record prices in 2025.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures continue to consolidate off recent record highs in routine profit taking mode. Grains extended gains on hopes for a China deal and the pause on tariffs for Canada and Mexico.
Brazil imported a record 44.3 MMT of fertilizers during 2024.
A strategic pivot toward a more open trade policy.
John Heinberg, Total Farm Marketing, says grains opened lower on Monday but recovered shortly after the opening when news broke that the U.S. would delay tariffs on Mexico for 30 days to allow negotiations.
Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says grain and livestock futures opened mostly lower in response to tariffs imposed on China, Canada and Mexico over the weekend and retaliatory measures from those countries.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes, which was the first time in several weeks for corn. So is the bull market in corn over?
Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says most markets had a negative reaction to to the 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canada starting this weekend and possible retaliation.
Chinese state-owned grain trader COFCO is committed to Brazil’s soy-buying moratorium.
Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says grain and hog markets opened lower reacting to President Trump announcing Thursday afternoon the U.S. would be moving ahead with 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Feb. 1.
Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says corn and cattle are major bull markets and there are certain signals he’s looking for to indicate all of the bullish fundamentals are worked into prices.
Lutnick repeatedly called for restoring “reciprocity” in trade with other countries.
Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says grains rallied with corn making new highs for the move but wheat also saw double digit gains.
Chip Nellinger, Blue-Reef AgriMarketing says grains rally with corn pulling up the rest of the complex on South American weather concerns.
This incident comes as China stopped receiving Brazilian soybean shipments amid phytosanitary issues.
Fed cash cattle hit a new record high for a fourth straight week with the five area weighted average at $210.79, up $7.12 from the previous week.
Chuck Shelby, Risk Management Commodities, says grains close higher seeing fund buying and consolidation with the markets still digesting possible tariffs and South American weather.
DuWayne Bosse, Bolt Marketing, says corn and wheat are trying to recover Tuesday with fund short covering.
Dr. Vince Malanga criticizes the Federal Reserve’s claims of being non-political.
Mike Zuzulo, Global Commodity Analytics, says grains further corrected with funds liquidating in corn, soybeans and meal due to rains over the weekend in Argentina and more in the extended forecast.
Cattle hit record highs again and hogs follow, says Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek. Grains break on South America weather and tariff concerns.