John Phipps: From Broadband to the Economy, What I’m Watching in 2021

Some random thoughts about 2021:

1. Starlink will prove a revolutionary advance for rural internet.
2. With Americans firmly entrenched in their attitudes, many will follow advice from WWI – keep your head down. The payback for popular attention is way below the costs.
3. Expertise may remain out of favor, but it will help your bottom line more than loyalty.
4. As we struggle to understand how our national economy works, we will entertain new explanations that at least match up with the data.
5. The US will set a new record low total fertility rate this year. I’m predicting below 1.5 children per woman.
6. Increasingly transparent land rental markets will reinforce the conviction that the only true security with land is to own it. Coupled with record low mortgage rates, farmers will become even more active buyers.
7. The sight of relatively modest sized farms driving old, but surprisingly large equipment will become more common as smaller used machinery becomes scarcer and larger old machines become cheaper.
8. The impact of the pandemic on our medical system will continue regardless of vaccination success.
9. More colleges than ever will close this year. History will make a comeback as part of college curricula. More high-paying jobs will be filled by testing rather than resumes.
10. New attention will be focused on ultra-high wealth (UHW) individuals. For example, one hedge fund manager left a $100 million dollar tax hole in the New Jersey budget when he moved to Florida. States will intensify the race to the bottom to attract UHW. Income and wealth inequality will be the largest threats to capitalism of any form.
11. Our economy will become more uncoupled. Agriculture could have a very good year, while entertainment, retail, and transportation almost certainly will not. Even within ag, the difference between sectors could be stark. This will add to our cultural tensions.