Record El Niño Behind Historic Rains Stalling Harvest Across the U.S.

Torrential rain has parked combines across the country this week, and a record-setting El Niño is a big part of the story, says Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Lincoln, Nebraska, set a new daily precipitation record this week, measuring 10.4 inches of rain. That’s as much states like Iowa saw their wettest September on record. And crop conditions are paying the price, with reports of grain quality issues from too much rain.

Snodgrass says the soaking this week came from the remnants of Polo combining with a low that moved out of California and stretched across the middle of the country. Folks from New Mexico to Pennsylvania spent the week listening for their sump pumps.

Totals are staggering. Between August and September, some areas picked up 20 inches of rain, and some spots in Iowa saw 30, Snodgrass says. Central Ohio just had its wettest growing-season finish on record.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Historic El Niño Takes Shape, And It Hasn’t Even Peaked

Asked whether El Niño is driving the pattern, Snodgrass says not only is it fueling what we saw this week, but it’s important to remember the weather phenomenon hasn’t even peaked yet.

“It’s huge. Biggest in my career,” he says. “It’s right now pushing all of the records that we’ve ever set and it’s not even done.”

Snodgrass points out El Niño typically peaks in December, he notes.

“But here it is the beginning of October. We’ve already smashed the record set in 2015,” says Snodgrass.

(Iowa Mesonet )

Snodgrass says the swings have been wild. The mid-South was baking in a rapid-onset drought until Polo’s remnants arrived. Dallas had gone 76 days without measuring a tenth of an inch of rain. Parts of Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, which hadn’t seen much rain in a long time, also got hit hard.

“We’re really starting to see more and more of this highly variable precipitation, which makes it difficult to farm in,” he says.

What It Potentially Means for Yield

Snodgrass is concerned about the impact the deluge of rain is having on the crop. He says it’s both the temperature and rainfall mix to close out the season causing damage to crops.

“When you look at the temperature and precipitation combination to finish the season, it’s not one that continued to put on more yield. It may have put on more test weight, may have made some bigger kernels, but other than that, I’m not sure,” he adds.

The rain has likely lodged some beans and raised the risk of stalk problems in corn, he adds, and the sprouting corn showing up in fields is a sight farmers haven’t seen in years of dry harvests.

Snodgrass says the industry has engineered crops around the drought of 2012, but rainfall totals and variability are both trending up.

“We’d better really consider what it means to have a crop with wet feet all the time,” he says.

A 12-Day Rain-Free Harvest Window is Coming

For growers who haven’t turned a wheel yet, Snodgrass has some good news. He sees roughly a 12-day window, but the first five days will be needed for fields to dry down. That opens a seven-day stretch that should start after the weekend and run into early next week.

“I think it’s gonna be a tough go of it, knowing what soil moisture looks like,” he says.

He’s also watching a system out west around mid-month, but isn’t settled on whether it’s real or “a phantom in the model.”

Looking Ahead to Winter

(Eric Snodgrass )

The El Niño influence points to a drier, warmer winter across the northern tier and wetter conditions in the South, Snodgrass says. He’s less sure about pockets of the Ohio Valley, which could turn dry. Snodgrass says a warmer north could also push the snow line farther north, he says. That would mean less snowpack in Pacific Northwest mountains, which growers in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana count on for irrigation.

To gauge what’s coming for November and December, Snodgrass looked back at the nine previous strong El Niños since 1950. He was in Fargo earlier this week and says he told growers there that history typically shows a drier signal from the Pacific Northwest all the way over to the Red River Valley of the North.

“But right now we’ve got 80% of the country in some stage of drought, even with some of the heavy rains we’ve seen,” he says. “I think that number will be down to 30% if these forecasts verify.”

The temperature outlook is consistent with the El Niño pattern, too. “There will be more warmer than average days across the northern tier of the United States than cooler,” Snodgrass says. “Doesn’t mean it won’t get cold, but more warmer than the average days.”

(Eric Snodgrass)

Precipitation is where the El Niño fingerprint shows up most. “The precipitation pattern is classic El Niño, wetter from California, right through to Wisconsin, and then all across the south and up the east coast, with the drier spots being the Ohio River Valley, maybe, that’s a maybe, and then the northern plains of the United States,” he says.

A warmer north could also push the snow line farther north, Snodgrass says. That would mean less snowpack in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest, which growers in Oregon, Washington, Idaho and Montana count on for irrigation.