Corn: The 2011 corn planted area for all purposes is estimated at 92.3 million acres, unchanged from the June estimate but up 5 percent from 2010. This represents the second highest planted acreage in the United States since 1944, behind only the 93.5 million acres planted in 2007. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 84.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June but up 4 percent from 2010.
As of July 31, sixty-two percent of the corn acreage was rated in good to excellent condition in the 18 major producing States, compared with 71 percent rated in these two categories last year at this time. Thirteen of the 18 States reported less acreage rated in good to excellent condition compared with the same time last year, with the largest declines reported in Kansas and Texas due to an extended drought and above normal temperatures.
Planting got off to a slow start in 2011 due to unfavorable planting conditions across much of the major corn-producing region during April. Midwestern fieldwork remained at a virtual standstill during the middle of April due to heavy rains and lowland flooding in the central and eastern Corn Belt. During the final week of April, excessive rainfall continued to fall from eastern Oklahoma into the Mid-South and the lower Ohio Valley delaying planting in many locations, but some progress was made in the western Corn Belt. By May 1, only 13 percent of the acreage had been planted, compared with 66 percent planted at the same time last year and 40 percent for the 5-year average.
Planting delays continued during early May throughout much of the Midwest, but mostly dry weather prompted fieldwork in the western Corn Belt States of Iowa and Nebraska. Planting conditions improved during May in most of the major corn-producing areas of the country, but delays continued in the eastern Corn Belt. By May 29, eighty-six percent of the intended corn acreage had been seeded, compared with 97 percent complete at the same time last year and 95 percent for the 5-year average. Planting was virtually complete by June 12.
Warm weather and adequate soil moisture levels in many of the major corn-producing States provided nearly ideal growing conditions for emerging plants during the first half of June. By June 19, virtually all of the nation’s corn acreage had emerged. Wet weather continued across most of the Midwest during the second half of June, maintaining abundant moisture reserves for corn. On the other hand, extremely dry conditions and above normal temperatures in the central and southern Plains caused severe stress to both irrigated and non-irrigated corn acreage.
During the first half of July, warm weather, scattered showers, and abundant soil moisture promoted rapid crop development across the northern Plains and Midwest, while relentlessly hot, dry weather persisted in the south-central United States. As of July 17, thirty-five percent of the corn acreage was at or beyond the silking stage. The latter part of the month saw above normal temperatures reported across much of the major corn-producing regions.
Sorghum: Production is forecast at 241 million bushels, down 30 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the smallest production since 1956. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 4.39 million acres, down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 9 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be the lowest harvested acreage level since 1936. Based on August 1 conditions, yield is forecast at 54.8 bushels per acre, down 17 bushels from last year.
As of July 31, the sorghum crop was 42 percent headed, 9 points behind last year and 7 points behind average. Prolonged drought conditions and high temperatures in July have negatively impacted the crop throughout the Southern Plains. Forty-four percent of the crop was rated in very poor to poor condition compared with only 5 percent at this time last year.
Barley: Production for 2011 is forecast at 168 million bushels, down 3 percent from the July forecast and 7 percent from 2010. Based on conditions as of August 1, the average yield for the United States is forecast at 70.4 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from July but 2.7 bushels below last year’s record high. Area harvested for grain or seed, at 2.39 million acres, is down 4 percent from the previous forecast and down 3 percent from 2010. If realized, this will be the smallest harvested area since 1881.
While seeding was complete in Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, and Washington, barley producers in North Dakota were still seeding their crop as July began. Consequently, the most significant phenological delays were evident in North Dakota, where unfavorable weather conditions not only limited seeding progress but slowed crop development as well. The latter half of July brought warmer temperatures to much of the Northern Tier, promoting increased crop development and maturation in many areas. As the month ended, harvest was underway in portions of the major barley-producing region, but well behind the normal pace. Overall, 72 percent of the barley crop was reported in good to excellent condition on July 31, compared with 76 percent on July 3 and 86 percent at the same time last year.
Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, up slightly from the July 1 forecast and up 1 percent from 2010. Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.3 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last month but down 0.5 bushel from last year. Expected grain area totals 32.3 million acres, up 2 percent from last year but unchanged from last month. Harvest in the 18 major producing States was 81 percent complete by July 31, two points behind last year and 5 points behind the 5-year average.
Harvest was virtually complete by the end of July in all major Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Montana and South Dakota, where harvest was 32 and 4 points behind normal, respectively. As the crop lagged behind normal crop development much of the growing season due to cool, wet spring conditions, harvest was just getting underway in Montana by July 31. Yield decreases from last month in the HRW growing areas are expected in the Northern Great Plains.
As of July 31, harvest in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was complete in all major States except Michigan where progress was 10 points behind the 5-year average. Excellent growing conditions during the month in the Pacific Northwest States led to yield increases from the July forecast. However, harvest progress is running significantly behind normal in these States, ranging from 14 to 38 points behind the 5-year average.
Record high yields are expected in Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Durum wheat: Production is forecast at 57.1 million bushels, down 10 percent from July and down 47 percent from 2010. The United States yield is forecast at 42.4 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from last month but unchanged from last year. Area harvested for grain is expected to total 1.35 million acres, down 18 percent from last month and down 47 percent from last year.
Due to flooding and excessively wet conditions earlier in the season, crop development lags significantly behind normal in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest Durum-producing States. By July 31, heading in these States was 31 and 38 percentage points behind the 5-year average, respectively. Yield forecasts are unchanged from last month in all major producing States except North Dakota who experienced warm and mostly dry conditions during the month to help accelerate crop maturity.
Other spring wheat: Production is forecast at 522 million bushels, down 5 percent from last month and down 15 percent from last year. The United States yield is forecast at 42.5 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 3.6 bushels from 2010. The expected area to be harvested for grain totals 12.3 million acres, down 7 percent from last month and down 8 percent from last year.
Flooding and prolonged wet weather during the spring and early summer months slowed crop development in most States. In the six major producing States, 90 percent of the crop was at or beyond the heading stage of development by July 31, seven percentage points behind last year and 8 points behind the 5-year average. By month’s end, harvest had begun in only South Dakota and Oregon. Yield increases are expected in the Pacific Northwest and North Dakota, as seasonal temperatures during July advanced crop maturity.
Rice: Production is forecast at 188 million cwt, down 23 percent from last year. Area for harvest is expected to total 2.64 million acres, down slightly from the June Acreage report and 27 percent lower than 2010. The average United States yield is forecast at 7,114 pounds per acre, up 389 pounds from last year.
Harvest was underway by the end of July in Louisiana and Texas. While Louisiana growers welcomed the rain at the end of the month, it delayed harvest in some areas. In Texas, the rice crop showed no major damage from the excessive heat and drought conditions that have plagued the State the last several months.
If realized, production in Arkansas, the largest rice-producing State, will be the lowest since 1997. In California, cooler than normal temperatures delayed crop development, but the majority of the crop was rated in excellent condition at the end of July.
As of July 31, forty-seven percent of the United States acreage was headed, 18 percentage points behind last year and 2 points behind the 5-year average. Sixty-four percent of the United States acreage was rated in good to excellent condition as of July 31, compared with 72 percent rated in these two categories a year earlier.
Soybeans: Planted area for the Nation is estimated at 75.0 million acres, down fractionally from June and down 3 percent from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 73.8 million acres, down less than 1 percent from June and down 4 percent from 2010.
Soybean planting got off to a less than ideal start as severe flooding during April contributed to planting delays this spring. Heavy snowmelt created flooding along the upper and middle Mississippi River, while heavy rains induced flooding across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South. During the last week of April, historic flooding occurred in southeastern Missouri and neighboring areas as the flood crest moved south. Meanwhile, cool temperatures and rain combined to slow down planting progress across the northern Corn Belt. As of May 8, only 7 percent of intended soybean acreage was planted, 21 points behind last year’s pace and 10 points behind the 5-year average. Wet weather during the latter half of May led to continued delays in planting. As of May 29, fifty-one percent of the intended soybean acreage was planted, 20 points behind normal and last year’s pace. Ohio was only at 7 percent planted, nearly 70 percentage points less than the 5-year average for that date, and Indiana lagged 37 points behind the normal pace. However, significant progress was made during June, and 97 percent of the intended crop was planted by June 26, one point ahead of last year and the 5-year average.
Emergence of the soybean crop began behind normal and last year’s pace, and remained behind the normal pace throughout May and nearly all of June. Soybeans reached 96 percent emerged by July 3, equal to the 5-year average but 1 point behind last year’s pace. Blooming progress for soybeans followed a very similar pattern to emergence progress, remaining several points behind the 5-year average and last year’s pace throughout July. As of July 31, seventy-seven percent of the Nation’s crop was blooming, 4 points behind normal and 7 points behind last year. Thirty-four percent of the acreage was setting pods by July 31, eleven points behind normal and 16 points behind last year.
As of July 31, sixty percent of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 6 percentage points less than the same week in 2010. Good to excellent ratings decreased across much of the soybean growing region during July, with declines in condition ratings of 13 points or more in Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, and Missouri due to hot, dry weather. Extremely dry conditions have also hampered yield expectations in Texas, where the yield forecast of 20 bushels per acre will be the lowest since 1993, if realized.
Canola: Area planted to canola in 2011 is estimated at 1.09 million acres, down 4 percent from June and down 25 percent from last year. Area for harvest is forecast at 1.07 million acres, also down 4 percent from June. In North Dakota, planted area is estimated at 890,000 acres, down 5 percent from June and down 30 percent from 2010. Harvested area in North Dakota is forecast at 880,000 acres, also down 5 percent from June.
Alfalfa and alfalfa mixtures: Production is forecast at 65.0 million tons, down 4 percent from last year. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 3.36 tons per acre, down 0.04 ton from last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield since 2005. Harvested area is forecast at 19.3 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 3 percent from the previous year’s acreage.
Adequate rainfall along the Pacific Coast, across much of the Northern Tier, and in portions of the eastern half of the country has led to greater yield expectations in several States. Most notably, record-tying yields are forecast for Idaho, North Dakota, and Virginia. Elsewhere, predominately hot, dry weather in the Four Corners region as well as the southern Great Plains adversely affected much of the alfalfa crop.
Other hay: Production is forecast at 67.0 million tons, down 14 percent from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest production level since 1993. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 1.75 tons per acre, down 0.20 ton from last year. If realized, this will be the lowest United States yield since 1988. Harvested area is forecast at 38.3 million acres, unchanged from the June forecast but down 4 percent from last year.
Unusually warm temperatures coupled with little to no moisture across much of the southern half of the country have led to decreased yield expectations in many States. Severe to exceptional drought conditions centered over Oklahoma and Texas, but stretching from the Four Corners region through much of the Delta, have negatively affected pastures and many grass hay fields. Elsewhere, adequate rainfall and surplus snowpack across much of the Northern Tier provided favorable growing conditions for hay. Producers in North Dakota, Washington, and Wyoming are expecting record high yields, while forecasted yields in Louisiana and South Dakota are expected to be record tying.
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