A chance for millions of people to see an aurora this weekend also brings the risk of radio and GPS disruptions for farmers in the field.
On Thursday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) issued a severe G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch. It is the first since January of 2005. Friday at Noon SWPC confirmed the geomagnetic storm had strengthened and indeed reached the G4 level.
The event follows reports of at least seven massive solar flares or earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from a sunspot cluster 16 times the diameter of Earth.
These solar eruptions cause geomagnetic storms can impact satellite systems and other electronics potentially disrupting communications, electric grids, navigation and radio.
“We have notified all of our infrastructure operators that we coordinate with–satellite operators, communication folks and course the power grid here in North America–so they are able to be prepared and take mitigation measures as much as possible throughout this event if it should unfold to the levels that we currently are anticipating,” says Shawn Dahl, a space weather forecaster at NOAA’s SWPC.
He says the region on the sun is rotating but the activity is not over. Effects are likely to linger through the weekend.
On Friday there were already reports of radio blackouts across Africa, Europe and Asia. SWPC says frequent and longer periods of GPS degradation are possible.
What Does it Mean for Farmers
It’s all happening right as farmers are rushing to get the 2024 crop planted.
“The good news is those radio blackouts for GPS may only last for a few hours or half a day,” says Dr. Terry Griffin a Professor & Cropping Systems Economist at Kansas State University. “My message is: if this is a radio blackout then patience is your best bet. Go check the NOAA website and if the planetary K-Index is red instead of green then go have an early lunch.”
Beyond the inconvenience of delayed field work, there could be real dollars lost to such an extended outage.
From an agricultural perspective, Dr. Griffin has been studying the economic impacts of GPS outages for several years. He’s found that even a few hours to half a day of lost GPS signal can come with a cost for farmers. That’s especially true for farmers who miss an optimum planting or harvesting window. Pushing field work later into the season can ultimately cost them yield and performance during the season.
“There are there are some real penalties and real dollars that come into effect when we’re not able to do field work,” Dr. Griffin said.
That said, it depends on the time of year and the regions impacted. A January disruption would likely have less impact than one during planting or harvest.
Dr. Griffin says while GPS satellites have been in use and in orbit for many years – the first launched in 1978 – civilian use of GPS is relatively new.
He believes these new space weather events will come with a learning curve.
“This was the first solar cycle maximum we’ve had that’s going to be big with satellite communications,” Dr. Griffin said. “So, we’re going to find out some things.”
This latest storm is forecast to show up as a visible aurora on May 10 and May 11 for people as far south as Alabama to northern California.
You can read more and stay up to date with the latest planetary K-Index at www.swpc.noaa.gov.
