U.S. agricultural exports were at $13.01 billion in August, essentially unchanged from July, against imports of $17.19 billion, which were down 2% from July, resulting in a monthly trade deficit of $4.18 billion.
So far in fiscal year (FY) 2024, exports total $161.3 billion compared to imports of $188.82 billion, creating a cumulative deficit of $27.52 billion. The sector has recorded monthly deficits in 10 out of 11 months in FY 2024, with three months seeing deficits of $4 billion or more and eight months with a deficit of $1 billion or more.
USDA forecasts agricultural exports at $173.5 billion and imports at a record $204 billion for a projected record trade deficit of $30.5 billion.
In FY 2023, the trade gap was $17.1 billion. Based on the FY 2024 forecasts and cumulative trade data, agricultural exports in September would need to reach $12.2 billion to meet the USDA forecast, while imports would need to be $15.18 billion. Historically, the value of imports has declined in September compared to August over the past three years, while the value of exports fell in two of the last three years, with September 2023 being an exception.
Since U.S. agricultural exports peaked at $196.1 billion in FY 2022, they have dropped by 11.5%. USDA’s forecast for exports of $169.5 billion in FY 2025, if accurate, would represent a 15.4% decline in the value of shipments since FY 2022. Meanwhile, imports have consistently set records in recent years, and in FY 2025, they are expected to rise to $212 billion, nearly 4% higher than FY 2024 forecasts.
This trend continues to fuel concerns in U.S. agriculture, particularly over the lack of new free trade agreements (FTAs) pursued by the Biden administration. FTAs are typically aimed at removing tariff barriers for U.S. agricultural products, which can significantly boost market access for American farmers.
Administration Touts Strides in Beefing Up Ag Trade
Just last week the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office and USDA reported the administration has made significant strides in expanding market access and boosting agricultural exports.
The agencies reported the four-year average of U.S. ag exports is 28.5% higher compared to the previous four years. It says the administration has secured more than $26 billion in ag market access globally. The agencies also added that the peak was reached in 2022 with a record of $196 billion in ag export values.
Officials cited the momentum from several key initiatives, including the “Regional Agricultural Promotion Program” and the
Assisting Specialty Crop Exports Initiative,” along with trade relationship improvements with India,
Colombia and gaining access for U.S. fresh potatoes to Mexico.
Washington watchers say some of the increase in export value may also be attributed to higher prices rather than only increased volumes, pointing the to record ag trade deficit on the books today.
