The bar for the U.S. corn crop was lowered entering 2026. Crop rotation considerations alone made a decline in acreage virtually certain following 2025’s massive 98.8 million planted acres — the highest since 1933. A fertilizer price surge following the outbreak of the Iran War intensified the acreage debate. Uncertainty mounted over whether soaring input costs would drive producers toward soybeans, casting doubt on if the March 31 Prospective Plantings figures would hold up. Ultimately, the June 30 Acreage data revealed no drastic shift, pegging planted corn acres at 95.3 million.
While the planting season moved at a solid clip overall, wet weather created delays and forced frequent replanting across the eastern Corn Belt, which will make for late-developing corn in affected areas.
Meanwhile, questions remain over whether an input price squeeze resulted in widespread pullbacks in fertilizer applications that will dent overall yield potential. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour, scheduled for Aug. 17 to 20, will reveal the physical foundation of the crop. Scouts will evaluate whether these acres successfully produced a high population of ears featuring healthy length and row counts. Visual stress, such as late-season nitrogen firing and tip-back, will offer clues regarding the impact of reduced chemical applications.
Furthermore, any signs of stress from excessively wet weather will be clearly evident. While last year’s tour uncovered a surprising amount of disease, including southern rust, this year’s concerns center on spreading reports of tar spot and bacterial leaf streak. Agronomists have also flagged pollination issues in the eastern and southeastern Corn Belt — particularly in fields planted around mid-April — potentially caused by intense rains disrupting the silking process. Conversely, hot weather in mid-July was baking the northwestern Corn Belt, where prolonged dryness remains a threat.
Despite these regional threats, USDA crop condition ratings have held remarkably steady. As of July 12, USDA rated 68% of the corn crop as good or excellent, while at the same time last year, the crop was rated 74% good or excellent. Historically, there is no direct correlation between mid-July ratings and final yield.
The soybean crop went into the ground fast and early, continuing a trend of producers working to stretch the growing season. As of May 24, 79% of the soybean crop was planted, outpacing the 75% recorded at the same time last year and beating the five-year average of 68%.
Much like corn, soybean ratings have remained stable into early July. As of July 12, 65% of the crop was rated good or excellent, which compares to a rating of 70% at the same time last year. Going forward, excessive moisture is viewed as a much larger potential threat to the soybean crop than to corn, putting a spotlight on August weather. Last year’s tour recorded historically high soybean pod counts, pointing to strong final yield potential that was ultimately confirmed by USDA’s annual production report.
