While we can’t look into a crystal ball to see just how the forecast for winter 2026 will play out, we can look at overall patterns and data to get a sense of what to expect when winter hits this year and next.
As of August 13, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center reports that El Niño is getting stronger, with a greater than 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026 and 2027.¹ El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions across the northern United States but wetter conditions across more of the South.
But growers comparing the Farmers’ Almanac 2026 winter forecast with NOAA’s 2026 winter outlook should remember that seasonal forecasts describe probabilities across broad regions and are not necessarily specific to your individual fields and local area.
Impact on crop residues and disease risk
Microbial breakdown depends on moisture, aeration and contact between residue and the soil. If dry conditions limit microbial activity, more pathogen-infested material may remain on the surface going into spring.
The pathogens responsible for northern corn leaf blight and tar spot can survive in corn residue that doesn’t fully break down over the winter. In fields with a history of either disease, this could increase the risk of an infection if later-season conditions become moist and cool before silking.
The winter 2026 forecast can help identify fields to watch, but it cannot determine whether a fungicide application will produce an economic return. Base that decision on field history, hybrid or variety susceptibility, crop stage, disease identification and current moisture conditions.
VT through R3 is the primary fungicide window for many corn foliar diseases, with VT–R1 serving as a common decision point. For soybeans, applications for many foliar diseases generally center on R3. White mold is an exception because fungicides must be applied during flowering, usually between R1 and R3.
Overwintering pests could become a problem
A warmer winter can either increase or decrease the survival rate of overwintering insects. For those pests that overwinter on the soil surface, wild swings between freezing and above 50 degrees can prevent pests from adapting to winter conditions, and they end up dying.² However, if crop residues remain and provide an insulating refuge for these pests, they may not be affected as much.
For example, bean leaf beetles can’t tolerate air temperatures below 14 F. Adults escape this by burying themselves in the soil or leftover plant material. Just a few degrees can drastically change the survival rates. In northern Iowa, overwinter mortality can range from 69-92%, while southern counties may see only 49-54% mortality.³
Pests that overwinter under the soil, such as corn rootworm eggs or Japanese beetle grubs, may not see any changes in survival, as underground temperatures are often more stable, especially if the frost line is shallow or there is good snow cover for insulation.
In southern cotton-producing regions, warmer winter conditions may improve the survival of some plant-parasitic nematodes. Wetter conditions could also leave more moisture entering spring, although target spot and areolate mildew ultimately depend more on humidity and leaf wetness during the growing season.
What a warmer winter may mean for weed management
Warmer soils in spring could mean an earlier emergence of annual weeds like horseweed, chickweed and groundsel, requiring a narrower spring burndown window. It may be best to wait until nighttime temperatures remain above approximately 45°F for several consecutive days. Cool, cloudy conditions can reduce the performance of contact herbicides, while residual products may be needed to control weeds that emerge after the burndown application.⁴
Winter weather forecasts cannot predict exactly which crop protection problems will develop in a particular field, and the winter 2026 forecast is no exception. However, they can help you identify vulnerable acres, adjust scouting plans and prepare to act when field conditions confirm the risk.
Experts are available to help you make your crop management decisions. Reach out to your seed retailer, a nearby extension office agent or a seed company professional like your regional BASF representative.
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Endnotes
- Climate Prediction Center. “ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.” National Weather Service, 13 Aug. 2026,https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml.
- Hodgson, Erin, and Ashley Dean. “What Does This Warm Winter Mean for Insects?” Integrated Crop Management, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, 12 Mar. 2024,https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2024/03/what-does-warm-winter-mean-insects.
- Dean, Ashley, and Erin Hodgson. “2026 Bean Leaf Beetle Overwintering Mortality.” Integrated Crop Management, Iowa State University Extension and Outreach, 22 Apr. 2026,https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2026/04/2026-bean-leaf-beetle-overwintering-mortality.
- Legleiter, Travis, and Bill Johnson. Spring Greenup Applications, Winter Annual Burndowns, and Cover Crop Termination. Purdue University Extension Weed Science, 11 Apr. 2014,https://ag.purdue.edu/btny/purdueweedscience/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/GreenupandBurndown.pdf.
