The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says “borderline ENSO-neutral” to “weak El Nino” conditions are expected to continue through the winter, with a possible strengthening during the next few months. But it says compared to the past few months, the odds of El Nino developing have been reduced.
“Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Nino will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Nino conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Nino could develop, but remain weak,” states NOAA. “The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Nino conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.”
