The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions continued during September as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Additionally, it says the majority of its models indicate neutral conditions will continue into spring. The CPC, however, says a few models (mainly statistical) call for a borderline or weak La Nina into winter while a few others (mainly dynamic) forecast a warming toward a borderline or weak El Nino event.
| CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabilities | |||
| Season | La Nina | Neutral | El Nino |
| SON 2013 | 8% | 88% | 4% |
| OND 2013 | 10% | 81% | 9% |
| NDJ 2014 | 10% | 76% | 14% |
| DJF 2014 | 10% | 72% | 18% |
| JFM 2014 | 11% | 69% | 21% |
| FMA 2014 | 11% | 65% | 24% |
| MAM 2014 | 11% | 62% | 27% |
| AMJ 2014 | 12% | 62% | 26% |
| MJJ 2014 | 12% | 58% | 30% |
“Though the forecast favors near-average conditions, many models predict a gradual increase from slightly cooler-than-average to warmer conditions as the spring approaches. Overall, the consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014,” states CPC on its ENSO forecast.
