Minnesota And Iowa Add More Uncertainty to the 2026 Corn Yield Outlook

From the road, much of the corn across Iowa and Minnesota looks like a crop worth bragging about. Step out of the pickup, however, and the story grows more complicated: fewer ears, shorter grain length and signs of pollination stress are showing up in fields that otherwise look solid.

That’s the tension Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts encountered Thursday as they worked through two of the Corn Belt’s key corn and soybean states. In both Minnesota and Iowa, scouts found fields offering deep kernels and big ears capable of pushing yields higher, while other fields revealed just how much early-season stress can hide inside a good-looking crop.

The result? A crop that could still produce strong yields — but with more variability than a windshield survey suggests.

Eastern Iowa Shows Strength But With A Catch

Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre found some of the best corn of the tour in eastern Iowa, describing three consecutive stops northwest of Cedar Falls as a “honey hole.” The ears in the photo below are proof.

(Karen Braun)

The fields had large ears, deep kernels and relatively little disease pressure. But even in those strong fields, one yield component was missing: ears.

Akre expected to find roughly 110 to 115 ears in a 30-foot row. Instead, he was finding closer to 100 to 105.

The good news? The ears that were there had plenty of potential.

“The last field we went in, we didn’t have the kernels around you’d want, but then you look and crack that sucker open, and the kernels were just deep in there,” Akre says.

Those deep kernels could help compensate for the lower ear counts, particularly with enough growing season remaining to add test weight before black layer.

That tradeoff — fewer ears but good ear size and kernel depth — has emerged as one of the defining characteristics of this year’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour.

Western Iowa Mirrors A Pattern Of Uneven Development

Western Iowa showed a similar trend, though with even more evidence of stress. Chip Flory, AgriTalk host and anchor of the western leg of the tour, reported ear populations that were below last year, and grain length that was also shorter. Ear counts in northwestern Iowa were roughly even with last year, but total counts in west-central and southwestern Iowa were lower.

(Tyne Morgan)

From the middle of Iowa and eastward, Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie says he was encouraged by what he found.

“I’m a lot more comfortable [with] what I’m seeing so far in the fields we’ve been in in Iowa than the mess we’re dealing with in Illinois,” Ferrie told Farm Journal’s Tyne Morgan.

Still, Ferrie is concerned about the significant southern rust and tar spot he found in some Iowa fields. He estimates the corn there could have another 30 to 35 days of growth and development remaining, leaving plenty of time for disease pressure to build before harvest. He encourages farmers there to keep on top of the disease picture that’s developing.

Soybeans also showed strong potential in the parts of Iowa Ferrie visited.

“The pod counts today were really high, and I think it’s going to be an above-average crop,” he says.

(Karen Braun)

Minnesota Reveals Uneven Growth, Moisture Concerns

The picture around corn yield potential became more unclear as scouts drove into Minnesota.

Akre saw soybean pod counts improve as he moved through southern Minnesota, but corn samples from the western and southern portions of the state showed several ways yield can fall short even when plants look healthy.

In one field, scouts counted just 79 ears in 30-inch rows. In other fields, however, ear count wasn’t the problem — poor grain length was the issue.

Flory found corn yields ranging from 158 to 203 bushels an acre in Brown, Watonwan and Blue Earth counties. Only one sample he checked in those states topped 200 bushels.

Flory adds that he measured grain lengths of 6.42, 7.08 and 6.67 inches in several fields on Thursday morning.

That matters because a field can have healthy plants and respectable ear counts but still give up significant yield potential if grain length is limited.

“The kernel potential was not there,” he says. “That tells me that there was some early-season stress.”

Fortunately, the tide turned Thursday afternoon, with Flory finding more fields that boasted higher corn yield potential.

“My average over nine stops came in at 201 bushels,” he says. “It was quite a day.”

Grain Length Emerges As A Key Metric This Season

Emily Carolan, who has been compiling data from scouts across the tour this week, has seen a pattern of lower grain lengths emerge across multiple reports.

Of the 33 districts for which Pro Farmer had reported corn ear length measurements, only six reported averages of seven inches or more.

“Seven-inch ears usually is what you need consistently — 7, 7.2, 7.3 — to get some of those bigger yields we want out there,” says Carolan, Pro Farmer Crop Tour lead data analyst.

That makes corn grain length one of the numbers farmers may want to watch as the tour’s results are compiled and delivered.

Farmer Reports Lack Of Rain In Southwest Minnesota

For southwest Minnesota farmer Cory Tilstra, the Pro Farmer scouts’ observations this week line up with what he’s seen in his own fields.

Tilstra farms near Luverne, where his crops have received only 10 inches of rain this season — about half of normal.

(Ted Seifried)

While his crop got off to a strong early start, heat and dryness intensified during pollination. Tilstra estimates his corn has accumulated about 2,200 GDUs and is roughly 10% ahead of normal.

“We went about six weeks with no rain during pollination,” he says.

Now the effects are showing up in the ears.

Tilstra has found zippering and roughly 2 inches of tip-back on some hybrids. Recent rains may help the remaining kernels fill, but he expects the dry stretch to ding final yield.

“I’d say there was definitely damage done,” he says.

One positive: the lack of moisture has helped keep disease pressure lighter than last year. Tilstra says, however, that he’s seen better plant health in fungicide trials where applications were made.

His soybeans are harder to evaluate. While recent rain should help fill pods, he doesn’t know how many pods were lost during the dry period and limited yield potential.

Last year’s crops set a high benchmark. Tilstra’s corn yields ran 10 to 20 bushels above his actual production history, with some fields as much as 30 bushels higher. Soybeans were about five bushels above his APH.

He doesn’t expect to match those results this year.

“Based off in our area, I’d say we’re going to be less than we were last year,” Tilstra says. “I still have optimism that it’s going to be a good yield. Once the combines start rolling, we’ll know more.”

Illinois Complicates The National Corn Yield Picture

The Iowa and Minnesota findings follow on the heels of disappointing results from Illinois, and add another layer to the U.S. crop’s yield story.

Flory says the pattern emerging across the tour makes it difficult to envision a national crop coming in at an average above 180 bushels per acre. Lower ear counts have been a problem throughout the Corn Belt, while shorter grain length (ear length) has emerged as a recurring issue across parts of the western Corn Belt.

“I can’t imagine that USDA isn’t going to find the same thing in the objective yield plots,” he says.

The next major yield estimate checkpoint comes Sept. 11, when USDA releases its next Crop Production report.

If the supply side of the balance sheet ultimately tightens, Flory expects the market’s attention to shift toward demand.

“After we get the September report, man, it’s all about demand,” he says.

Still A Lot Of Season Left To Go

While the crop has plenty of potential in both states, scouts have also found that what looks like a bumper crop from the road can lose bushels once they start counting ears and measuring grain.

“This crop is OK, no doubt about that,” Flory says. “Everyone’s comparing it to the monster we had last year, and that seems a little unfair to this year’s crop. Even with all the complaining we’ve done it still has the potential to deliver the second- or third-highest national average yield.”

This year, Farm Journal takes you deeper into the Pro Farmer Crop Tour than ever before with live coverage Monday through Thursday from 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. CST. Follow along with scouts in the fields, market analysis and more.