It’s a contentious battle continuing to play out in Congress. Two years overdue, Congress still hasn’t passed a new farm bill, and as the calendar approaches the half-way point of 2025, optimism of passing a farm bill this year is waning.
The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found most agricultural economists think it could be 2026 before we see Congress finally pass a new bill. One reason why, according to agricultural economists, is the fact Congress passed $10 billion in financial relief payments late last year.
The April Monthly Monitor asked the nearly 70 ag economists surveyed each month when they think Congress will pass a new farm bill:
- 59% said 2026
- 24% think it won’t happen until 2027
- 18% said the second half of 2025.
None of the economists think Congress will pass a new farm bill in the first half of 2025. The survey also asked economists, “Does the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) program make it more difficult for Congress to pass a new farm bill this year?
- 62% said yes
- 38% responded no.
Most major agricultural groups argue that the current farm bill is outdated. Passed in 2018, it was designed to cover five years. Congress has passed an extension for two straight years that’s helped agriculture limp along, but another extension might not suffice in addressing the current financial pain being felt on the farm, especially for cotton and rice farmers.
Other Hurdles for Passing a Farm Bill in 2025
Even with the GOP in control of the House and Senate, it’s no secret one of the main obstacles in passing a new farm bill, or any bill in Washington, is the budget.
The April Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists what are the biggest hurdles in passing a new farm bill, the top response was budget. But economists also say Congress is racing against a calendar, and deeper cuts to SNAP could end up hurting agriculture priorities in the end. One economist even argued ARC and PLC just aren’t effective programs.
- “The farm bill just isn’t as important to the administration as is getting their policy agenda through Congress,” said one economist.
- “The budget. If farm legislation is approved in 2025, it will likely be part of the budget reconciliation bill and passed without Democratic support, meaning increased support for farmers is provided by deeper cuts in SNAP. Only if that effort collapses is there any real possibility of a bipartisan farm bill,” said another economist in the anonymous survey.
- “In general, Congress has difficulty passing any legislation. This is very detrimental to the long-run health of U.S. agriculture and the U.S. economy. We simply have to address entitlements and deficit spending in the next few years.”
- “If the new farm bill has to have no new spending similar to the 2018 farm bill, then which title wins and which title loses is the biggest fight,” an economist said in the April survey.
- “They have to be working on a bill first. Currently, I do not think a bill is even in the works,” said another economist.
- “Pushing back on SNAP,” stated an economist.
Bottom line: The likelihood of passing a farm bill this year is low. Both the Senate and House Committees say it’s a top priority and are working behind the scenes to get a farm bill passed this year, but similar bottlenecks remain, which are a lack of additional funding and a polarized Congress. Debates were heated this week, and the blame game continues. Until Congress can find a way to compromise on Title I and SNAP, the stalemate could continue.
Concerns About a Recession in Agriculture
The farm economy doesn’t seem to be improving. The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows agricultural economists are also growing more pessimistic about the ag economy. The April survey found 72% of ag economists say the row crop side of agriculture is in a recession, up from 62% last month. Eighty-two percent of economists also think this could force more consolidation in agriculture.
