Willing to endure short-term pain for long-term gain might best describe U.S. farmers’ current sentiment regarding ongoing trade and tariff troubles with China and other countries.
Bill Flory, who grows wheat in northern Idaho near Lewiston, said he likes how the U.S. is handling current negotiations with its trade partners, especially China. Officials from the two countries are set for talk trades this weekend in Switzerland.
“I’ll just say that the Trump administration is doing some excellent, excellent heavy lifting, a lot of tough negotiations that will have direct and indirect impacts on production ag,” Flory said on Wednesday.
A similar sentiment appears to be shared on a broad scale by U.S. farmers, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, which was released Tuesday.
The Barometer, a nationwide measure of the health of the U.S. agricultural economy, showed improved farmer outlook in April, climbing 8 points to a reading of 148. This was driven by farmers’ optimism, despite their ongoing concerns about the impact of trade wars and tariffs, reported Jim Mintert, emeritus professor of economics at Purdue University.
“The improvement in farmer sentiment came as a bit of a surprise to us,” Mintert said.
As he dug deeper into the survey results, he was able to identify how farmers were thinking about their finances in the present as well as the future.
“When farmers were asked about what tariffs might mean for their finances in 2025, over half (56%) said they believe there’s a good chance that tariffs will reduce farm income in 2025,” Mintert reported.
“But when we came back and asked them how they feel about tariffs’ impact on the ag economy from a long-term perspective, 70% said they think tariffs will be beneficial long-term to U.S. agriculture,” he added.
Farmers Want Trade To Pay Their Way
Illinois farmer Chad Leman said he is glad to see trade “back in the conversation” at the national level. “We haven’t had any trade talks for the last number of years, and now we’re talking trade again,” said Leman, a third-generation farmer raising corn, soybeans and hogs near Eureka, Ill. “As always with this administration there’s a lot of noise, and you have to try and figure out where it’s headed. But it also brings some volatility to these markets, which, if we play that correctly, can be beneficial to us.”
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has promised to have a plan, such as the Market Facilitation Program (MFP), ready for farmers, if needed. In 2019, MFP provided direct payments to producers impacted by retaliatory tariffs that resulted in the loss of traditional exports.
“Everything is on the table right now. Everything. I know that President Trump, whom I speak with regularly, realizes the state of the farm economy in this country,” Rollins told Farm Journal earlier this year.
Market Facility Program Outlook
Both Leman and Flory expressed their dislike for Market Facility Programs and other financial relief-type payments to farmers.
I’m probably swimming upstream a little here, but I really hate to hear talk about another MFP,” Leman said. “I really wish we could get through this without a subsidy of some sort. I wish [the U.S. government] would focus more on the commodity credit loans or something. I mean, we’re looking at 7% borrowing interest on operating right now. And if they would look more at low interest money to get farmers through, I think that would be a win-win for farmers, and it sure looks better from a public perception standpoint,” he added.
The Ag Economy Barometer reported that more farmers believe an MFP could be on the way. “Eighty percent of farmers surveyed say they think an MFP is likely, if [trade talks] cause lower prices for ag products,” Mintert said.
“It’s the market, not a subsidy that we want to put the priority on,” Flory emphasized, recalling the Trump administration’s negotiations with China during his first term.
“The first Trump administration had a large trade deal with China, though China did not fully uphold their quantities and the terms,” Flory said. “But talks with China are extremely important, because they have been such a large [buyer of U.S. commodities], and South America is taking advantage of that.”
Given the ongoing financial upheaval in commodity markets and other economic uncertainty for agriculture, Mintert said the Ag Economy Barometer picked up on increased farmer interest in getting a farm bill passed in 2025.
“For a while there we didn’t have very many people too worried about a farm bill. Now, 45% of the farmers surveyed said it’s very important that a farm bill be passed in 2025, and another 27% say it’s important,” Mintert said. “When you put those two percentages together, you’ve got 72% of the people surveyed saying a farm bill is important. That wasn’t true a year and a half, two years ago. People weren’t worried about a farm bill then. That’s really changed.”
Flory and Leman were part of the Farmer Forum on AgriTalk on Wednesday. Get the full conversation here.
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