While we may not see as many record eye-popping land sales in 2026, experts say they still anticipate the land market to remain resilient. After years of steady growth, the agricultural land market is shifting and stabilizing. That’s according to analysis from Farmers National Company.
“When we look to 2026, we look for the market to remain stable. We don’t see anything on the horizon that would indicate large fluctuations in land values,” says Colton Lacina, senior vice president of real estate operations. “There are some macro influential factors we are watching — whether that’s grain prices, the 2026 crop and also interest rates.”
He says this isn’t a sign of collapse, but a recalibration that reflects current commodity prices, input costs and regional production conditions.
“We aren’t anticipating the market to fall out, but we are with prolonged compressed margins in the commodity sector. We are anticipating the growth to slow down,” Lacina points out.
Land Market Still Resilient
Still, the resilience of land values has been a welcome surprise to Lacina and his company.
“I think it comes down to, fundamentally, supply and demand. Our supply has continued to be, throughout the last 18 months, historically low, and demand has remained stable. So, that really props up the resiliency of the market,” he adds.
That’s good news with four-year lows in grain prices, and particularly for farmers who own their land outright. That value is what’s keeping many of them in business with negative profits.
Regional Differences Emerge
Although land values are still high historically, current signs indicate a more complex market — driven by local and regional factors rather than nationwide trends. Of the eight regions Farmers National Company serves, Lacina says some are faring better than others.
“The core Midwest, the I-states and eastern Nebraska have remained much more stable than say the Southern regions where different commodity types or crop types, being cotton or rice, are seeing a little more weakness there. We’ve also seen marginal land slide,” Lacina says.
Farmers Still Main Buyers, But More Conservative
Lacina says active farmers remain the largest group of buyers, yet many are more cautious — weighing profitability concerns against long-term ownership goals. They focus on high-quality land within their established areas.
“In areas that we saw good yields in 2025, we’re seeing that translate into higher land values in areas that were impacted on yield. Producers being our largest buying sector, they are being more conservative and really analyzing those purchases,” he explains.
One bright spot has been increased value for range and pasture land with high cattle prices. Additionally, Lacina says they only expect land rental rates to cool by about 1.5% in 2026.
