President Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are scheduled to meet with Argentinian President Javier Milei on Tuesday. This meeting comes after Milei announcing efforts to control his country’s currencies value.
One of those moves is eliminating the country’s export tax. Since Argentina is the No. 3 soybean producing country globally, and U.S. soybean exports are 5 million tons lower than a year ago, this developing situation has U.S. soybean farmers bracing for more bad news.
“Brazilian soy has dominated the world market, especially China, and have raised their offers to take advantage,” says Lane Akre, economist at Pro Farmer. “Two things could’ve happened, either Argentina recognized this and took advantage, cutting the taxes on their own, or there was some deal making by some Chinese entities to encourage them to cut their taxes. Since Chinese entities are barred from the U.S. market, they look to be trying to find some alternatives.”
As of last week, soybean prices in Argentina were similar to U.S. market prices, and more than 10% below Brazilian prices.
Reacting to the news out of Argentina on Monday, U.S. soybean market prices were at their lowest levels in more than a month.
“Markets closed Friday on key technical support and that level broke down,” Akre says. “The market has been hopeful on trade recently and the cut on Argy export taxes really took the wind out of bulls’ sails.”
If China has secured supply from Brazil and Argentina, this further isolates the U.S. soybean supply from filling their import needs of 100 to 105 million metric tons. Argentina has cancelled their export taxes through Oct. 31, 2025, overlapping with U.S. harvest a crucial time for U.S. commodity markets and farmers to find profitability.
Eyes On NYC Meeting
To discuss the U.S.-Argentina relationship, a meeting between the countries’ leaders has been announced to take place in Manhattan on Sept. 23. Sec. Bessent stated his support for Argentina on X:
Argentina is a systemically important U.S. ally in Latin America, and the @USTreasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina.
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) September 22, 2025
All options for stabilization are on the table. 1/4
“Argentina has been on BRICS radar for nearly two years now,” Akre says. “As that group has tried to take some of the world’s dominance on the USD away, they are basically trying to develop their own economic super power. If Trump/Bessent are able to convince Milei it is better to be on the U.S. side, it would give the U.S. greater negotiating power with China, but that is hard to imagine given the recent decision to lower export taxes.”
