Live Cattle
December live cattle futures softened up yesterday, but it wasn’t enough to do any technical damage. We’ve seen a risk-off trade in many commodities recently with the surging US Dollar. That doesn’t need to be correlated to cattle complex, but it could impact overall flows which is something to keep in mind. Support comes in at 182.82-183.32, if that gives way we could see selling accelerate on the back of long liquidation.
Resistance: 186.60-187.675***, 189.47-190.075****
Pivot: 184.55-185.20
Support:182.82-183.325***, 180.00-180.50***
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were lower on Wednesday with choice cuts 1.33 lower to 306.94 and select cuts 1.26 lower to 278.66. Tuesday’s slaughter was reported at 125k head, 1k more than the same day last year and in line with last week.
Seasonal Tendency Update
Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). The chart appears to show that the first half of November is a tough time for the market to stage a meaningful rally, but the back half can be more favorable. Whether or not that rings true this year is TBD.
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of about 940 futures and options contracts, all but 6 contracts being short covering. This extended they weekly buying streak to 7 weeks (important to note this data is through November 5th and does not include the end of the week). Funds are now net long 101,453 contracts. That registers as the largest net long position since September of 2023.
Check out the full report with charts that breakdown the livestock market.
Are Livestock Markets Out of Gas? - Blue Line Futures
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