Live Cattle
Technicals (June-M)
June live cattle futures had a great start to the week but were unable to find any follow-through at the upper end of the recent range. With the market mostly rangebound, many of the support and resistance levels remain intact, along with our moderately bearish bias.
Yesterday’s cutout values were mixed with choice cuts 11 cents lower to 313.22 and select cuts 13 cents higher to 303.18. Daily slaughter was reported at 122k head, inline with last week and slightly below the same day last year.
Resistance: 185.85-186.625*, 189.05
Pivot: 182.20
Support: 179.825-180.625**, 177.10
Seasonal Tendencies (June Live Cattle)
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line). Seasonally we start to see June futures soften up, but if you’ve been watching cattle at all over the last year you know that seasonals tendencies tend to have had a lower correlation this year.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 4k futures and options contracts, extending their net long position for the eighth consecutive week, now sitting roughly 63.3k contracts long. Typically, we would view this as a relatively Neutral/Bullish position. This is about half of the length they had when prices peaked last Fall.
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