Market Watch with Austin Schroeder
August 29, 2025
Culture Shift
Thursday night was the start of the Cornhusker football season, a date that has been on my calendar for a while. The last decade has been a brutal one for us Husker fans, as we have seemingly found new ways to lose. Thursday night was one that we almost let slip away. In the past, it was the blueprint for a game the team would have found themselves on the losing side of. From a program perspective, it can take time to shift the culture from one to find ways to low to finding ways to win. Thursday was a start, as not only did the special teams come to play but there were very few ‘bone head’ plays, or penalties. That starts with the culture. The closest thing we have to a culture shift in the commodity markets is ending a trend. In the corn market the bulls are trying to shift things, breaking out of a declining regression channel on Friday and getting closer to some technical targets. For the wheat market, the culture needs more work from the bulls. New lows were printed this week creeping further into the $4 in the KC market. As for the cattle, the bull’s culture firmly remains in place.
Corn saw some early losses this week, though Friday gains took the December contracts 8 3/5 cents higher on the week. A drier weather pattern in August has given the market a reason to cover some shorts. The weekly Crop Progress report showed the US corn crop at 44% dented as of August 24, with 7% mature. Ratings were steady this week at 71% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 1 at 381. EIA data showed ethanol production down 2,000 barrels per day in the week ending on August 22 at 1.07 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol were down 139,000 barrels to 22.549 million barrels. Weekly Export Sales data tallied 2024/25 corn bookings at a net reduction of 17,109 MT in the week that ended on August 21, with new crop sales tallied at 2.09 MMT. The Friday Commitment of Traders report indicated managed money slashing another 33,964 contracts from their net short position as of Tuesday, taking it to 110,686 contracts.
The wheat complex saw mixed action this week. Chicago SRW futures were up 7 cents, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 1 1/4 cent loss. MPLS December spring wheat was down 10 cents. Crop Progress data showed 98% of the winter wheat harvest completed as of Sunday, 1 point behind normal. The US spring wheat crop was 53% harvested, with ratings down 1% to 49% good/excellent, with a Brugler500 index unchanged at 333. Canadian wheat production is estimated to total 35.548 MMT according to Stats Canada, down 1.1% from last year. Spring wheat is seen down 2% to 25.992 MMT. Export Sales data showed US wheat 2025/26 business improving to 579,794 MT. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 12.152 MMT, 51% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 47% average pace. Chicago wheat specs cut 16,545 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 61,587 contracts. In KC wheat, they trimmed their net short by 2,699 contracts to 48,681 contracts by August 26.
Soybeans saw a break in the buying this week with November down 4 cents from last Friday. The product values were weaker, with September meal $4.90/ton lower and September bean oil down 324 points this week. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed 89% of the US soybean crop setting pods by 8/24 and 4% dropping leaves. Condition ratings were 1 percentage point higher at 69% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index up 1 point to 374. Export Sales data showed 2024/25 soybeans at 189,184 MT in net reductions for the week of August 21. New crop business was up in that week to a new MY high of 1.373 MMT. Managed money added to their net long in soybean futures and options by 20,815 contracts by August 26, taking that to a net long of 20,818 contracts.
Live cattle futures closed the week with a $1.77 gain. Cash trade was firm in the north this week at $245, with the South improving $2 to $242. Feeders were up another $2.10 since last Friday, handicapped by some early week pressure. The CME Feeder Cattle Index shot up $15.20 week/week to $365.38. A report last weekend of a case of New World Screwworm found in a human in Maryland failed to provide the market with much selling fuel outside of an initial Monday break. Wholesale boxed beef continued the push higher as we got to the Labor Day weekend. Choice was up $7.50 (1.8%) this week to $415.41. Select was $6.34 (1.7%) higher at $390 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was up 2.6% from last week but 6.9% below the same week last year at 488.4 million lbs. Production year to date is 4% lower on a 6.9% decline in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a total of 13,591 MT of beef sold in the week of August 21, a 3-week high. Shipments were tallied at 11,483 MT. Managed money added back 1,633 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 126,152 contracts. Spec funds cut another 2,576 contracts from their net long to 30,580 contracts by August 26.
Hogs put on a show of strength this week, with October pushing above the $95 level and up $3.82 this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another $1.89 this week at $106.43 as of August 27. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back up $1.36 this week to $114.32/cwt. The ham were the only primals reported lower on the week, with the pib up $3.49 and Loin $3.87 higher. Weekly pork production was down 1% from last week but still 2% below the same week last year at 499.5 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.3% on a 2.4% drop in slaughter. Export Sales data showed a 9-week high in pork sales at 42,389 MT in the week of 8/21. Export shipments were tallied at a 16-week low of 25,599 MT. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding back 8,274 contracts to their net long position as of Tuesday to 114,042 contracts.
Cotton pulled back this week, with December down 147 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 71% of the US cotton crop setting bolls by 8/24, with 20% opening. Condition ratings were down 1% to 54% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was steady at 349. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed 173,333 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 8/21. Shipments slipped to 112,656 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.412 million RB, which is 30% of the USDA forecast and lags the 47% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 59 points lower this week, to 55.94 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders adding back 3,614 contracts from their net short position as of August 26 to a net -59,931 contracts.
Market Watch
We start next week a day late, with Monday being Labor Day. Tuesday will see the release of the weekly Export Inspections and Crop Progress. We will also get the monthly Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Thursday due to the Monday holiday. We will also get monthly Census export data on Thursday. Friday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report.
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