I read science fiction. Probably too much, especially space operas. Despite the name, it might be the most familiar form of sci-fi, think Star Trek or Star Wars.
The basic premise for this dubious literature is humans flooding into space. Why? There have been standard almost-plausible reasons. First, humankind trashes Earth by war, environmental stupidity, biological blundering or a combination. The second motivation is overpopulation. We flee to the stars as a relief valve for untold billions needing room to live. After choosing one of these scenarios, all you need is a magical technology to overcome the speed of light and brave new worlds. Such technology is improbable but a plot necessity. Despoiling the planet was vaguely imaginable. Overpopulation, however, seemed virtually certain.
Something strange happened on the way to this exciting extraterrestrial future. Before the turn of the century, demographers began struggling to fit ever more accurate population data with prediction curves we assumed were graven in stone.
For example, farmers’ favorite rallying cry of “10 billion people” is now suspect. Not only do projections show a peak in this century, but recent studies also suggest peaks below 9 billion, some barely over our current world numbers. In addition, the turning point is predicted as soon as 2040.
Demographers struggle to understand a world where record low birth and fertility rates are announced almost weekly. China, Japan, the U.S. and Canada are recent examples. More confusing is the backside contour of the population curve, as our top-heavy global age distribution indicates something more cliff-like than sledding hill. Nor is there any believable way to reverse this obvious trend.
Global depopulation won’t merely pose problems for low-quality fiction. It is a paradigm shift for our species. We’ll need less stuff, including food. We’ll have more room, as evidenced by already abandoned villages in Japan and Italy. AI replacing human labor will be more godsend than career curse. In all, there will be little urgency to leave our planetary home just for space, so to speak.
Lower populations will not end conflict, nor ensure resources are distributed efficiently. Fewer people can be a mixed blessing. Declining populations might contribute to environmental improvement but worsen rural quality of life, for instance.
For space operas, this could be the ultimate plot twist.
