Market Watch with Austin Schroeder
September 19, 2025
True Test
This week’s market action saw some weaker trade across the grains, giving most of the previous week’s gains back. Of course, the market (mainly beans) was less than hopeful of the US/China trade spat coming to end anytime soon (at least by the seasonal time we need to get some beans on a boat) following the Friday phone meeting between the countries two leaders. All things considering, with it being in the last half of September and China has yet to buy a single bean, November sitting at $10.26 is still fairly strong. We do have some help via a smaller crop thanks to an acreage cut, and over 450 mbu of additional crush since the previous trade war, but we are approaching a time when we seasonally need the export business. Will we still be sitting with a $10 handle in 2 weeks if the lack of China business continues? That will be the true test of the market.
Corn failed to push through from the strength last week, as December slipped back 6 cents from last Friday’s close. USDA reported several private export sale announcements this week, totaling 465,431 MT. Monday’s Crop Progress report indicated a total of 85% of the US corn crop dented as of September 14, with 41% mature. Harvest was 7% complete by last Sunday. Conditions slipped back another 1% this week at 67% good/excellent, with the Brugler500 index falling 3 at 372. Weekly EIA data showed ethanol production falling 50,000 barrels per day in the week ending on September 12 at 1.055 million barrels per day. Stocks of ethanol saw a draw of 235,000 barrels to 22.602 million barrels. Export Sales data showed a bounce back in 2025/26 corn bookings at 1.23 MMT in the week that ended on September 11. Commitments are still second highest in record at 23.833 MMT, already 32% of the USDA forecast and ahead of the 29% average. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report tallied managed money at a net short of 80,051 contracts as of Tuesday, a 19,878 contract reduction on the week.
The wheat complex saw some early gains this week, but pulled back late to close with losses across the three exchanges. Chicago SRW futures slipped a penny lower, with the December KC HRW contract showing a 7 ½ cent loss. MPLS December spring wheat was 4 1/4 cents in the red. Crop Progress data showed the US spring wheat crop at 94% harvested, 2 points ahead of average. The winter wheat crop was pegged at 11% planted, 2 points behind normal. North of the border, Stats Canada estimated their wheat production at 36.62 MMT, a 1.9% hike from last year and 1.1 MMT above the August number. The Thursday Export Sales report tallied 2025/26 wheat business improving to a 3-week high at 377,459 MT in the week ending on September 11. Shipped and unshipped sales so far in the marketing year are 13.156 MMT, 54% of the USDA export projection and ahead of the 52% average pace. Chicago wheat specs trimmed back 6,569 contracts from their net short as of Tuesday, taking it to 85,825 contracts. In KC wheat, they cut back their net short by 1,491 contracts to 51,534 contracts by 9/16.
Soybeans slipped lower this week, impacted by late week pressure, as November was down 20 ¾ cents this week. Much of that came on Friday, following the phone call between President Trump and China’s President Xi in which the two agreed to meet in South Korea at the end of October. October soybean meal was down $4.70/ton (1.63%) on the week, as bean oil was 164 points (3.17%) lower. The weekly Crop Progress report tallied 41% of the US soybean crop dropping leaves but 9/14, with harvest now 5% complete. Crop condition ratings slipped another percentage point to 63% good/excellent this week, with the Brugler500 index falling 2 points to 362. NOPA data from Monday showed 189.8 mbu of soybeans crushed among members in August, a record for the month by 12.93%. Export Sales data showed 2025/26 soybean sales improving to 923,018 MT for the week of September 11, though there still has yet to be a bean sold to China. Total commitments start the marketing year at 10.27 MMT, the lowest out of the last 16 years. Managed money flipped back to a net long in soybean futures and options during the week ending on September 16 to a net long of 2,287 contracts, a move of 17,001 contracts to the long side.
Live cattle rallied back higher this week, with October back up $3.60 (+1.57%). Cash trade was steady in the South at $240, with northern action $2-3 weaker this week at $237-238 across the country. Feeders took back most of the previous week’s losses with September up $8.75 (2.5%). The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $2.45 week/week to $360.63. Wholesale boxed beef continued the decline this week, as we move to a seasonally weaker period. Choice was down $17,99 (-4.85%) this week to $382.05. Select was $18.52 (-4.9%) lower at $359.92 as of Friday. Weekly beef production was down 1.9% from last week and 8.9% below the same week last year at 481.7 million lbs. Production year to date is 4.3% lower on a 7.1% decline in slaughter. Cattle on Feed data showed August placements down 9.92% at 1.78 million head, with marketings 13.63% below last year at 1.571 million head. September 1 on feed was 1.05% below a year ago at 11.08 million head. Weekly Export Sales data showed a total of 15,777 MT of beef sold in the week ending on 9/11, an improvement from last week. Shipments were tallied at 13,169 MT, which was a 6-week high. Managed money cut back 3,256 contracts from their net long position as of Tuesday, taking it to 127,747 contracts. Spec funds added back 255 contracts to their recently reduced net long to 25,891 contracts by September 16.
Hogs posted continued strength this week, as October managed a 85 cent gain since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down 34 cents this week at $105.70 as of September 17. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout slipped back $2.48 this week to $112.03/cwt. The loin, ham and belly primals were lower on the week. Weekly pork production was up 4% from last week and 2.1% above the same week last year at 545.3 million lbs. Pork production year to date is down 2.1% on a 2.2% drop in slaughter. Pork export business in the week ending on September 11 totaled 21,992 MT, which was above last week. Shipments were tallied at 29,396 MT, a 10-week high. Weekly CFTC data showed managed money adding another 7,835 contracts to their now record net long position as of Tuesday to 142,258 contracts.
Cotton futures slipped back this week, after an early week pop as December was down 54 points. The weekly NASS Crop Progress report showed a total of 50% the US cotton crop bolls opening by 9/14, with and harvest at 9% complete. Condition ratings were back down 2% to 52% good/excellent, as the Brugler500 index was 5 points lower at 344. Thursday’s Export Sales report showed an improvement in bookings to 186,108 RB in 2025/26 sales for week ending on 9/11. Shipments slipped to 120,493 RB. Commitments for the current year exports are just 3.973 million RB, which is 36% of the USDA forecast and lags the 52% average sales pace. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was 69 points higher this week, to 54.79 cents/lb. Commitment of Traders data showed spec traders slashing 9,844 contracts from their net short position as of September 16 to a net -59,061 contracts.
Market Watch
Next week starts with the normal release of the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning and the Crop Progress report out that afternoon. Cotton Ginnings data will also be released that morning. The weekly EIA Petroleum Status Report will be out on Wednesday. Wednesday is also first notice day for October cotton futures. Thursday morning will see the release of the weekly Export Sales report. We will also get the Hogs & Pigs report from NASS on Thursday afternoon. Thursday is also last trading day for November feeder cattle futures and options. On Friday, USDA will release the monthly Cold Storage report. October serial grain options expire on Friday.
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