Market Analysis
On soybeans, Jerry Gulke says the 25 million bushel increase in carryout can easily be wiped out with the current weather issues potential cuts to South American production, plus increased export demand.
Jon Scheve discusses similarities of corn and bean prices in October between 2022 and 2023.
Soybean demand makes the market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production trends lower into January. Corn exports are behind last year’s pace, and importers are turning to Brazil’s corn.
Even though USDA slightly adjusted yields lower in the October report, the agency also cut demand, which one extension agribusiness specialist says indicates there may not be much motivation for prices to move much.
Jon Scheve discusses last week’s USDA report and how corn carryout and demand could be an issue. Plus, he explains his corn basis strategy for last year’s crop.
A market analyst shared a gloomy outlook for the country on Thursday, saying the U.S. balance sheet and financial condition have been deteriorating significantly over the last decade. He expects more of the same ahead.
Sixty-five percent of farmers surveyed in July expect interest rates to climb in the next 12 months. On a positive note, 7 out of 10 said they expect farmland cash rental rates to remain roughly the same for 2024.
Changing your perspective from last trading day of future to the first notice day depicts the “gapping” lower due to inverted prices. Note: the price-gapping from old to new crop July to September is similar to 2012.
With the dry areas getting smaller and the wetter areas getting wetter, Jerry Gulke says the market is justified in removing weather premium from corn and soybeans.
The big market moves this week show just how tight the supply situation is for commodities, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.