U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement
Ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, President Donald Trump is considering replacing the trilateral pact with separate deals for Canada and Mexico, a shift that could reshape North American agricultural trade.
South Texas farmer Brian Jones says years of missed water deliveries from Mexico have cut his planted acres in half, forcing tough planting decisions as a new agreement brings both hope and skepticism.
As tariff proposals continue to bring uncertainty, the agricultural sector is assessing how any forthcoming country-by-country trade deals might offset the disruption, or if the industry needs to brace itself for a different kind of future.
Of all the directions President Trump could have gone on “Liberation Day,” Canadian Shaun Haney says it was a real win for Canada and a step closer to Canada, Mexico and the U.S. being more entrenched than ever before when it comes to trade.
Farmers and farm groups have mixed reactions and lingering questions following President Trump’s announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. Will farmers receive aid to offset tariff impact? How will U.S. trading partners react?
In a Wednesday morning press conference, ahead of Trump announcing his global tariff plan, Sheinbaum says Mexico will “announce a comprehensive program, not a tit for tat on tariffs,” but added, “we have a plan to strengthen the economy under any circumstance.”
Canadian farmers are on edge as the latest trade war could impact the crops they grow as well as the inputs they need to plant a crop this spring.
Tariff whiplash is consuming the commodity markets — and the possible impact is stirring up quite the debate. At present, President Trump says he’s sticking to his plan to impose additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China starting April 2.
Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was roller coaster week in both grain and livestock futures due to on again, off again tariff talk. Are calmer waters ahead?
Varilek says black swan events like the Black Sea war that broke in May of 2022 lead to highly volatile markets but in that case the news and uncertainty became priced in over time.
Mexico’s president said on Tuesday the country will respond to U.S. tariffs with a 25% tariff on U.S. goods, but she will hold off announcing the targeted products until Sunday.
President Trump says tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico will now take effect on April 2, 2025.
Trump said Monday that his planned 25% tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian exports to the U.S. “are going ahead on time, on schedule,” meaning the duties would take effect on March 4 at the conclusion of a one-month suspension.
Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins kicked off the 2025 Top Producer Summit on Tuesday morning, detailing her plan to advocate for trade. ‘We want to find market access for all our products,’ Rollins said.
The measures, effective March 12, eliminate country-specific exemptions and extend to downstream steel and aluminum products, affecting key suppliers such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea.
Who is next on the Trump administration’s trade radar?
Just hours before the tariffs were set to take effect, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced the news on X, and President Donald Trump later confirmed. Mexico is the top destination for U.S. ag exports. The announcement from Canada came later on Monday.
Following President Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, Canada announced its own 25% tariffs on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports. Mexico also announced its own retaliatory measures, but no specifics were unveiled as of Sunday morning.
U.S. farmers and various trade groups are very apprehensive about not only the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. ag sector, but what they do to garner new trade agreements.
Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump justified the tariffs as a response to what he described as excessive migration, drug trafficking and unfair trade practices. While he suggested the tariff rate could further increase, he indicated a decision on whether oil imports would be exempt would come soon.
Canada is preparing for potential trade challenges following Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The Canadian government is considering a proactive approach, including the possible early release of a retaliatory tariff list.
Trudeau also announced parliament would be prorogued, or suspended, until March 24. That means an election is unlikely before May at the earliest, so Trudeau will remain in charge - at least initially - of dealing with the threat of crippling tariffs once U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
The dispute traces back to December 2020 when plans were first announced to ban GM corn by the end of 2024. This move immediately raised concerns in the Corn Belt, prompting NCGA to initiate outreach to both the Trump and Biden administrations.
Threats of widespread tariffs and concerns about retaliation continue to stoke uneasiness in agriculture. With a growing trade deficit and hopes the U.S. could re-embark on the Phase One trade deal with China, could the focus back on trade be positive for agriculture?
Mexico is self-sufficient in white corn, used to make the country’s staple tortilla, but imports genetically-modified yellow corn from the United States which is used largely to feed livestock.
In response to John Deere’s recent announcement about moving some of its production to Mexico, Trump expressed concern about the impact on American workers, stating, “It’s hurting our country. It’s hurting our workers.”
A new president of Mexico will be elected on June 2. The two front-runners in the presidential race are both pro trade with the United States. That’s good news for U.S. farmers and livestock producers.