NOAA’s winter weather outlook is out, and with a strengthening El Niño pattern ahead, the agency’s data points to the strongest El Niño on record.
As forecasters outline what it means for your region, the system is continuing to intensify and will reach its peak over the winter months, putting it outside the heart of the growing season. However, it will still be a double-edged sword for agriculture this winter and heading into the spring.
El Niño conditions continue to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, according to NOAA forecasters.
“Well above normal ocean temperatures are present from just east of the dateline to the South America coast,” Jon Gottschalck, a meteorologist with NOAA’s National Weather Service, says.
The greatest impact from El Niño will take place starting in October, lasting through April or May.
Southern Storm Track and Drought Relief
“The biggest thing will be the active subtropical jet stream that will just be ripping across the southern tier of the United States that portends very wet weather likely from places like Southern California through the Southwest, the southern half of the Great Plains, the Mississippi Delta, and right on through the middle and southern Atlantic states,” Brad Rippey, a meteorologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture says.
For drought areas, this will bring drought-breaking precipitation through intense individual storms with the potential for heavy rain, wet snow and even some flooding.
NOAA predicts drought areas will reduce in all but the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
“As for the drought conditions this winter, we expect the drought conditions to improve for western portions of Oregon and western Washington State, the Southwest, the central and Southern Rockies, the Southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and areas in the East,” Gottschalck says.
Milder North and Spring Planting Concerns
Rippey said there will be a north-south divide not just on precipitation, but also temperatures, setting up a milder pattern across the northern U.S.
“As you move northward, the bigger story will be the warmth and drier than normal conditions,” Rippey says. “So if you look at places like the northern Rockies, parts of the Northwest, then through the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest, look for a lack of snowfall, less than usual and a near absence of extreme cold.”
El Niño is expected to peak at the tail end of 2026 or the first weeks of 2027.
“But I will caution that once El Niño is fully in place and has reached peak intensity, it takes a long time for the atmosphere to disentangle itself from that warm ocean water,” Rippey says. “And so we do expect the impacts of El Niño to continue at least on through the spring of 2027.”
While it is early, Rippey warned that could cause significant delays in spring planting in the southern U.S.
