Expect Slightly Lower Corn, Soybean Prices This Season

January 2, 2019 11:55 AM
Trade, large global inventory and slowing economic growth in key countries indicate U.S. corn and soybean farmers will continue to be challenged in 2019.

Trade, large global inventory and slowing economic growth in key countries indicate U.S. corn and soybean farmers will continue to be challenged in 2019. Positive trade policy could help reduce losses in export markets, but overall prices will be similar to or slightly down from 2018 levels.

Because of uncertainty in the soybean market, corn will likely see a sharp increase in planted acres this year. This means more saturation, greater ending stocks and weaker prices for the golden grain, according to research from the University of Illinois Farm Economics Summit.

Illinois economists found 2018 corn averaged about $3.70 and expect a $3.65 average for the 2019 season—if production and trade issues develop as expected.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.30.03 AM

“An estimate of 91.8 million acres with a trend yield near 174.2 bu. results in a 2019 crop near 14.7 billion bu.,” the report said. “A projected total use of 14.76 billion bu. would result in the 2019-20 marketing year ending stocks near 1.76 billion bu., on par with 2018-19 projections.”

Increased ethanol and feed use provided price support for corn this past year. The 2018 and 2019 season both show a reduction in corn ending stocks.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.06.13 AM

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.06.22 AM

You undoubtedly know that 2018 brought extreme challenges to soybean producers. Trade disputes made the once-promising crop experience a sharp price decrease to a year-average of $8.50 per bu. If no trade deal emerges, Illinois pegs soybeans at $8.40 for the 2019-20 marketing year.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.29.49 AM

“Soybean crush looks to continue strength but cannot make up for the drastic reduction in exports,” the report said. Even with a decrease in acres to 85.7 million, economists expect a surplus of bushels in 2019. Estimated 2018-19 ending stocks are near 930 million bu. from lower exports.

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.29.21 AM

Screen Shot 2019-01-02 at 11.29.27 AM

Wheat is one bright spot for row crop farmers. The average price for 2019 is expected to be near $5.10 per bu. World wheat production declined, U.S. wheat stocks lowered to 949.3 million bu. from 1.18 billion bu. in 2016-27 and wheat acres are forecasted to increase for the third year to 51 million acres in 2019.

Back to news


Spell Check

Natal, CA
1/7/2019 12:25 AM

  Hey just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Chrome. I'm not sure if this is a formatting issue or something to do with internet browser compatibility but I thought I'd post to let you know. The design look great though! Hope you get the issue fixed soon. Kudos Woah! I'm really digging the template/theme of this blog. It's simple, yet effective. A lot of times it's challenging to get that "perfect balance" between user friendliness and appearance. I must say you've done a fantastic job with this. Additionally, the blog loads super quick for me on Chrome. Superb Blog! I’ve been browsing on-line greater than 3 hours these days, but I by no means found any fascinating article like yours. It is lovely price enough for me. In my view, if all website owners and bloggers made just right content material as you did, the internet can be much more helpful than ever before. http://cspan.co.uk/


Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer