Gulke: Acreage Uncertainty Looms As Trade Sticks Close To USDA

June 28, 2017 01:30 PM

The trade guess for Friday’s June 30 acreage and stocks reports is closely in line with USDA expectations announced this spring, says Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. But the June 30 reports also have a history of surprises, so it will be a good idea to pay close attention to the data as it rolls in later this week.

“The average estimate is very close to USDA’s March analysis reflecting on the uncertainty in the marketplace and the unwillingness of the experts to want to go out on a limb one way or the other,” Gulke tells Farm Journal Radio host Pam Fretwell in a pre-report interview airing Wednesday, June 28, 2017. “… But they will all tell you that June 30 report has held in the past some major surprises, and this could be one of them.”

The average guess for corn is 89.9 million acres, a reduction of 100,000 acres from March 31, according to Reuters. Soybeans are pegged at 89.75 million acres, roughly a 250,000-acre increase over March figures.

The lack of change in acreage expectations persists in spite of challenges farmers in key Corn Belt states have faced so far this year.

“The average trade guess shows basically little to no change in corn and soybean acres in spite of the challenging spring weather we’ve had—the plant, the replant and so forth,” Gulke says. “The average trade analyst is not willing to put himself out on a limb even if he has a personal opinion.”

Stay tuned to for complete coverage of the June 30 acreage reports.

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