The midterm elections are critical for agriculture because whichever party controls the House and Senate will trickle down to the leadership of the ag and budget committees as they write a new farm bill. Washington Insiders say there could be a shift in power in the works.
In the Senate, political experts say the division between Democrats and Republicans has flipped back and forth the past several months, but it’s now razor thin.
Mary Kay Thatcher, Senior Lead of Government Relations with Syngenta, says: “Most people have been saying all along they’ll be a 51-49 or 50-50 Senate. The question, though, is it going to be 51-29 Republicans verses Democrats or Democrats verses Republicans? I don’t think you’re going to see a real broad win on either side of the equation in the Senate.”
Key Senate races to watch include Arizona, Florida and Georgia. If the Republicans win big in those states, they could pick up additional seats. Early precincts will also be telling, according to Jim Wiesemeyer, Pro Farmer Washington Analyst.
“David Wasserman told me on election night to watch the first district in Indiana, which is typically a Democratic district. If that goes to the Republicans that could be a signal of a long night for the Democrats,” Wiesemeyer says.
The House is expected to shift from Democrat to Republican control. Cook’s Political Report now says Republicans could gain from 20 to 25 seats verses the 10 or 15 they were predicting earlier.
“The 25 seats are important because that would likely give the House Speaker Kevin McCarthy from California a little more leeway relative to his arch conservative members,” Wiesemeyer says.
The shift to Republican power will also affect the leadership of the ag committee heading into the 2023 farm bill.
“Certainly I think G.T. Thompson is going to have a very different viewpoint about what kind of hearings he wants to have and what kind of emphasis he wants to put on the farm bill than you have from David Scott,” Thatcher says.
Plus, the party in control will impact baseline spending for the farm bill, including the $18 to $19 billion earmarked for conservation in the Climate Change Initiative.
“I think it’s going to matter a whole lot who’s in charge and especially who’s in charge of the budget committee and how do they feel about it,” Thatcher says.
She says the Republicans might also work on deficit reduction, which could cap the dollars available for the farm bill.
Regardless of the party in control, Thatcher doesn’t believe the farm bill will get written by October 2023, and she says the grid lock in Congress will continue even if the Democrats aren’t in control of all three branches of government.
