Friday provided some much-needed price rallies for the corn and wheat markets. Even though corn prices were only up about a penny for the week and wheat prices closed the week 15 cents lower, it could have been much worse, says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.
“Wheat was up 17 cents on Friday,” he says. “If we had not had a good move on Friday, we’d been down 30 cents for the week.”
Gulke likes to watch the wheat markets, as they can be a trendsetter for other commodity markets.
“It is a gauge I use,” he says. “We harvest wheat sooner. So, you go back and look at the charts and wheat prices peaked out about the beginning of harvest. Then prices fell all through harvest and took out all that we gained this year in wheat.”
The wheat market has now retested and validated some long-time price support, Gulke says. “We knew there was a story in wheat, but sometimes it takes a long time for some things to unravel.”
The corn market still shows hope of a positive story, he adds. Basis for corn actually improved this week where he farms in northern Illinois.
As harvest draws to a close, Gulke says, the market will shift its focus to demand. “We've got good crops and once we get them in the bin, you can't kill them anymore. So we pretty much know the supply.”
Soybean prices closed around 12 cents lower for the week. Confirmations of a large soybean crop combined with more-than-ample soybean stocks continue to pressure prices.
“We have a big mountain of soybeans from which to climb out of,” Gulke adds. “Now we have to get this harvest out of the way and see if there’s something out there that will help soybeans.”
Gulke also discusses the cattle and pork markets, how the Nov. 6 elections could affect the markets and more.
Listen to more audio analysis from Jerry Gulke, as well as written commentary, at AgWeb.com/Gulke.