Will The August WASDE Be A Game Changer?

August 8, 2018 03:26 PM
 
All eyes are on USDA's yield estimate which will be released on Thursday.

Farmers, market analysts, traders and bankers alike are waiting to see what USDA expects corn yields to be, a figure the agency will release with the August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report on Thursday. 

“You can always have kind of a game changing report in August,” Matt Bennett, farmer and owner of Bennett Consulting, told Tyne Morgan on AgDay TV. “Obviously, folks are looking for specific yield, anything from low 170s all the way up to 180 so this is going to be highly anticipated for sure.”

Bennett is quick to point out that the August yield estimate is not the end-all, be-all for corn yields. 

“Obviously that number is not going to be the gospel,” he said. “Last year we saw fair amount of movement after we came out with the August number.”

Like many analysts, Bennett expects yields to be in the 175 bu. per acre range. He says his estimate has come down from the official estimate he provided Reuters and Bloomberg earlier this week after seeing some corn that doesn’t look too great. 

“After seeing more of the crop this week, I guess I've just scaled [my original estimate] back a little bit,” he said, pointing out parts of the country who won’t see yields as strong as they have in the past, but contribute a fair amount of production. 

“The last couple years we've had a lot of folks that have been able to come to the table, that maybe don't typically have the 200 plus production, that have had 220, 230, 240 farm averages,” he said. “Some of those areas are going to be lucky to have half that this year. Whenever you start to extract that kind of production, for instance, maybe in Northern Iowa, Southeastern South Dakota or Southwestern Minnesota, that's a big production area and you can't take too many bushels away from that without affecting the national average.”

 

Visit www.agweb.com for full WASDE report coverage on Thursday, August 9. 

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