Anhydrous firmed only slightly this week as preplant applications decline sharply. We look ahead to UAN prices for post emerge applications and what anhydrous price action might tell us.
The deck is stacking against the downside for crude oil, heating oil and farm diesel. We have suspected the February farm diesel price low would be the lowest price we see in 2016 and global production fundamentals support that position.
Michigan led gains in UAN solutions with a $5.92 uptick in the per ton price of 28% as most states were less than a dollar lower. Currently, UAN solutions pose the greatest threat to the upside as corn will soon emerge in earnest and sidedress activity will prolong spring demand.
Farmers in Texas and Louisiana were the first ones on my radar, tweeting very early on that they were able to get into the fields relatively early. From there, temperatures in the Midwest began to warm quickly, and warmer soil temperatures had growers eyeing an early start which, historically has supported higher planted corn acreage.
Farm fuels drafted higher on higher crude oil and heating oil futures. Propane has just about seen its day for this winter, but diesel demand is just starting to perk up. This week’s report includes audio commentary from Scott Davis on global crude oil supplies.
This week’s price action may give us the “V” bottom we have been looking for in NH3. fuels ticked slightly higher as our Nutrient Composite Index firmed slightly for the first time in a long time.
P&K prices may continue to fall with potash holding the greatest chance of price softness. Phosphate prices may be supported by spring demand, especially in areas where supplies run thin.
