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Softs and Fibers Closed System Trades YTD: Gain $72,759.05
Cocoa (December) - Traders note- Market is Rangebound, should have done a better job trying to recover with stocks moving higher but demand watch support to get tested at 2400.
Technicals: The trend following system is Flat
Buy Trigger: 2589*
Sell Trigger: 2406*
Settle: 2444
OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss:$00.00
Previous Trades:
- Long Closed out from August 28 from 2622 stopped out 2555 $670 loss, high open equity was $710 on Sept 15.
- Long Closed out August 20 $1330 gain
- Short closed out July 24 $1120 Loss
- Short closed out June 25 $1210 loss
- Long closed out May 21 $1230 loss
- Short closed out on April 6 $4080 gain
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance:2710-2750**, 2801***,3000****
Support:2400*** 2100-2090****
ADX: 26.21
(ADX 14-day =Measures the strength of the current trend)
Pivot Point =2529
ATR = Average true range =64
18 EMA: 2506 > 40 EMA 2505 = *Neutral Trend
EMA= Exponential Moving Average
Initial Margin $2090 Maintenance Margin $1900
First Notice Date (Nov 16) Last Trade Date (Dec 15)
Technical Spotlight
We have been extensively covering the technical backdrop of the fiber and softs markets in the Blue Line Futures Breakfast Research Report so be sure to stay up to date on the developments by registering for a Free two-week trial by clicking on the link here: The Blue Line Breakfast Research Report
Coffee (December) - Traders note - Market reached a multiweek high before settling back on reports that new lockdown restrictions in Europe continue to hit demand and with ample supplies, the path of least resistance is lower.
Technicals: The trend following system is Short
Buy Trigger: 117.49*
Sell Trigger: 113.50* Sept 18
Settle:109.15
OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss:$1631.25 ($2418.75 New High Equity on move Oct 1)
Previous Trades:
- Long from July 22 Entry price 111.00 closed out September 14 at 123.05 for $4,518.75 gain (high equity September 4 $8625.00)
- Short Entry Price 104.20 (May 27) closed out June 29 $1537.50 gain (OTE High equity $3318.75 June 16)
Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral
Resistance: 116.78** (200 DMA) **, 135.45**, 142.60*** (Dec 31, 2019 High)
Support: 104.90*, 103.44**,95.50-94.00****
ADX: 19.18*
(ADX 14-day =Measures the strength of the current trend)
Pivot Point= 106.24
ATR = Average true range =4.17
18 EMA: 112.02 < 40 EMA 114.64 = Bearish Trend
EMA= Exponential Moving Average
If you are going to play this market, it is somewhat choppy and (for example) the Average True Range has been as high as 3.32. This means that on an average day the market should move 3.32 X $375 = $1245
Initial Margin $4455 Maintenance Margin $4050
First Notice Date (Nov 19) Last Trade Date (Dec 18)
Technical Spotlight - December Chart
Orange Juice (November) traders note* downward trendline was broken triggering the stop close only at 116.36 to be triggered. We are going to monitor Jan OJ due to the short time frame before rollover.
Technicals: The trend following system is Flat
Buy Trigger: 116.96*
Sell Trigger: 109.25*
Settle: 117.35
Profit/Loss:$00.00
Previous Trades:
- $697.50 gain closed out Oct 12 (High open equity was $2437.00 from Sept 24th, sell trigger was 122 on July 28 and buy was 117.35 Oct 12)
$-615.00 loss closed out July 17 (High open equity was a gain $487.50 July 13)
- $2587.50 gain closed out June 12 (high position equity $3570.00 May 28th)
Bias: Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance:126.00-128.00**, 130.00-132.00 (June High) **** (Short-term double top)
Support: 110.00-109.50(waterfall breakdown)***, (Swing low- washout) ***105.00
ADX: 18.86
(ADX 14-day = Measures the strength of the current trend)
Pivot=107.51
ATR = Average true range = 3.28
18 EMA: 113.81 < EMA 115.56 = Bearish Trend
Initial Margin $1386 Maintenance Margin $1260
First Notice Date (Nov 2) Last Trade Date (Nov 9)
Technical Spotlight
Sugar (March)** Traders note - for clients working broker assisted, we had exited this morning on S-T overbought signal, we will most likely re-enter on the dip. Watch Crude Oil prices for direction. Also we will monitor how the system plays this one till the end.
Technicals: The trend following system is Long
Buy Trigger: 13.38*Sept 18
Sell Trigger: 13.25
Settle: 13.84
OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss:$515.20 (High equity $952.00 Oct 9)
Previous Trades:
- Short from Sept 4th at 12.61 stopped out for loss of $683.20 at 13.22 on Sept 17th
- July 27 Buy from 12.12 closed out loss of $56 on Sept 3 12.07 (High Equity was August 19 a positive $1265.50)
- May 18 Buy closed out on July 13th gain $784.00 ($1433.60 gain High equity July 8
- Short closed out on 5/1 for $3852.80 gain
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: Tracking higher and may target 2020 highs! Watch 14.55 as next breakout level
Support: 12.44**(swing low), 11.39*** (Washout low) **** 11.00-10.90
ADX: 40.54
(ADX 14-day = Measures the strength of the current trend)
ATR = Average true range = 0.35
Pivot= 13.43
18 EMA: 13.63 > 40 EMA 13.36 =Bullish Trend
(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)
Initial Margin $1047 Maintenance Margin $952
First Notice Date (Mar 1) Last Trade Date (Feb 26)
Technical Spotlight
Cotton (Dec) *trader’s note - For clients working broker assisted, we took off some of the longs, taking outside cues from other markets. Much of the direction is the potential impact to the crop given 17 inches of rain moving through the Mississippi Delta recently.
Technicals: The trend following system is Long
Buy Trigger: 63.18 July 30
Sell Trigger: 66.58*
Settle: 68.37
OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss:$2595.00 (High equity $2595.00 Oct 12)
Previous Trades:
- Long from July 24 at 58.68 closed out $1620.00 gain closed out July 24th
- Long from April 30 at 57.33 closed out $1920.00 gain closed out June 19th
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: ***67.50 (breached Oct 7) , 70.00****
Support: 63.01**, 57.75*** watch the Speed-line on the chart
ADX: 29.41
(ADX 14-day = Measures the strength of the current trend)
Pivot=65.89
ATR = Average true range =1.20
18 EMA: 66.51 > 40 EMA 65.50 = Bullish Trend
(EXPMA = Exponential Moving Average)
Initial Margin $2915 Maintenance Margin $2650
First Notice Date (Nov 23) Last Trade Date (Dec 8)
Technical Spotlight
Lumber (Nov) *trader’s note (if Lumber breaks 550- it should start the next wave lower, watch the t-bond market if that can rally it might help support Lumber prices. Remember lower interest rates, more building, more stimulus, more building...you know the drill)
***If you get into this market, know upfront it’s thin, the contract data is below
Technicals: The trend following system is Short
Buy Trigger: 630.87
Sell Trigger:641.50 (Sept 4)
Settle: 535.80
OTE Unrealized Profit/Loss:$11627.00 (high open equity $11627.00 Oct 12)
Previous Trades:
- Long from June 17 at 376.70 closed out August 31 at 928.00 for $59,268.00 gain
Technical Spotlight
We have been extensively covering the technical backdrop of the fiber and softs markets in the Blue Line Futures Breakfast Research Report so be sure to stay up to date on the developments by registering for a Free two-week trial by clicking on the link here: The Blue Line Breakfast Research Report
Good luck and good trading,
Phillip Streible
Chief Market Strategist
312-858-7303
Phil@Bluelinefutures.com
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These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
