Grains ended mixed Monday. Cattle were mostly higher, hogs soared.
Corn and Soybeans End Slightly Higher
Corn and soybeans ended slightly higher with a push from slightly higher crude oil and swirling Iran war headlines according to Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities.
“When you look at what may happen on Tuesday, the intensification of the war, hopefully, you know, more peaceful settlement comes along but lot of outside headlines that just pop up and can really, you know, move the market in the short term. So a lot of information in the next few days are going to be pretty volatile,” he explains.
Can Grains Divorce From Crude Oil, War Headlines?
How long will corn and soybeans be tied to the headlines?
Shelby says he thinks it is difficult for the corn and soybean markets to unhinge until the war gets more resolved one way or another.
“Because we’re tied together there. You know certainly fertilizer is a big impact too as well as the crude because around the world there’s some shortages that are developing,” he adds.
Losing Corn Acres
So, Shelby thinks farmers are already making the decision to plant less corn.
“You know as we look into the corn production corn planted acres this year and maybe farmers have bought 80%, 90% of their fertilizer needs, but that leaves 10%. 10% of 95 million acres, that’s 9 million acres that are still maybe up in the air as we move towards those planting windows.”
He says it was too early to show up on the USDA Prospective Plantings Report.
“From the farmers that I work with and seed dealers I’ve talked to here in the Eastern Corn Belt, there are guys who are switching away from corn towards soybeans. A lot of those guys were side dressers who wait to buy their nitrogen or wait for the supply at the very end. So I think it is a real case that when they took the survey that producers didn’t have the information of the war and fertilizer prices going up. Obviously, nothing’s really being shipped out of that region. I do believe there is an impact going on.”
Is the Market Bidding for Acres?
The market is already starting to the acreage battle according to Shelby.
“When you look at the price of new crop beans, they’re significantly higher than where corn is basically at the same price, with much, much higher costs. So, yeah, I think the acres at the end of the day will show less corn acres than what we saw in that report a week or so ago.”
Weather Could Be the Tie Breaker
Weather could also have a big impact says Shelby.
“If it stays wet in the corn growing areas, we can plant a lot of corn at one time, but it’s just another reason for someone who is on the edge about a field that may or may not go into corn. I think those are reasons as we move forward that tend to lean less corn acres and you know more bean acres,” he adds.
Weather Different Than 2025
Weather so far is different from last year in that the Eastern Corn Belt.
“If you look at the drought monitor map we were extremely dry and really concerned about that but in the last week, we’ve picked up four to five inches of rain. There’s more predicted. So, you know, in the long run, that’s really good to get that moisture in the subsoil replenished. It might slow down planting. It’s kind of interesting. You know, Southern Illinois and Indiana were really, really behind last year, really wet. But there’s planters that are rolling in those areas because they’re on the drier side,” he explains.
Soybeans Await China Summit
The soybean market is also awaiting the outcome of the China summit in mid-May to see if the U.S. gets additional old crop soybean sales and if China will buy the promised 25 MMT of new crop.
Shelby thinks the longs in the soybean market will defend that position until that time.
“Right now they seem to be content to sit in there and wait and see. I think they believe that there’s probably going to be some more bushels bought by China once they get together and meet. So it’s a pretty important time for producers. Maybe a challenging time, but at least we’re getting some opportunities in the bean market at a higher market than it was in 2025.”
RVOs Add to Demand for Soybean Oil
Soybean oil made more contract highs on Monday following crude oil but also pricing in the 60% increase in biomass based diesel blending mandates.
A lot of the premium is built in according to Shelby but if the war continues to push diesel fuel and heating oil prices higher that will lift soybean oil because it follows those markets.
“If we do increase the conflict and it’s not over for, you know, months or whatever it may be and keep these fuel prices high, that bodes well for
more biofuel blending and just enhances the opportunity going forward to keep that in the mixture.”
Meal Higher on Argentina Flooding?
The meal market was also higher with bean oil on news of flooding in Argentina soybean areas.
“That was a little bit of a headline. You know, normally bean oil and meal take opposite directions as people spread off in that market. But it was good to see what was up again.”
Wheat Corrects on Weather, Profit Taking
Wheat futures were down on profit taking running into some chart resistance but also taking out some weather premium.
Shelby says, “There’s some moisture that’s supposed to come into the Western regions that are really, really dry. But again, is it enough to really change it? It would certainly help. I’m sure they’ll take all they can get. But the bulk of the moisture is more toward the center of the Corn Belt and to the East.”
The funds have pushed to the long side of the wheat market for the first time in four years but can it keep going?
“We’ve had a good run up the funds are long the market which is always good wheat’s very trending. So, if we turn the trend from down to up hopefully that would give us an extended run. Really wasn’t down that much today at the end of the day so just a little bit of a setback but I don’t think there’s really anything that you know has turned the trend back to negative,” he explains.
Live Cattle Hit New Contract Highs
The deferred live cattle futures made new contract highs with the help of skyrocketing cash trade at $245 to $246 in the North and South, so up $8 to $9.
Plus, Shelby says the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado will be back up slaughtering on Tuesday which also pushed the market higher.
He thinks going towards the grilling season he is concerned if consumers will continue to pay for beef with higher gas prices at the pump.
“With higher fuel prices, it certainly takes out of their budget the cash that they might have used for beef or pork or chicken or whatever. It’s an interesting dynamic that we’re going to see going forward. Again, it all ties back to what really happens in Iran and does it escalate, does it end. So there’s a lot riding on this next week or two as far as what the war is going to go forward or end or whatever may happen in all our markets, especially probably in the meat market,” he adds.
Hogs Rally with Cattle, China FMD
The hog market also soared Monday with cattle trying to play catch up according to Shelby.
Still the back months built in a big premium due to news of Foot and Mouth Disease in China.
“The Chinese are always a big part of our markets here. I think when you look at the pork market, there’s multiple reasons again, but I think with cattle are at all time record high and pork is, you know, well below where the highs where we have been and the demand going forward. And when you look at it as a substitute, it’s a little bit cheaper than, you know, your beef cuts that that’s probably the reason the pork market
has followed along,” he states.
Shelby looks for that to continue as long as cattle can stay strong and with disease also being reported in parts of Iowa and Minnesota. He says he hasn’t heard it so much from farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt.
“The numbers are going to drop down going forward it seems like at this point there is some problems that are out there but again it’s mostly West of illinois where I’ve heard that issue,” he says.
