For the week September corn was 20 cents higher, December corn gained 21 ¼, September soybeans were up 18 ¾, November soybeans were 16 ¼ higher, September soybean meal gained $1.30, September soybean oil was up 120 points, September soft red winter wheat rallied 35, September hard red winter wheat soared 40 ¼, while September hard red spring wheat lost 1 ¼.
Bullish Week for Corn
Grain futures put in a strong week with corn getting a bullish push from the August WASDE and Crop Production Report.The agency cut U.S. corn yield by 2.3 bu. per acre to 180.7 bu.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says while their firm was at 180.5 bu. per acre on yield, he was surprised that USDA cut the yield that far in the August report.
Since the estimates were based in part on farmer surveys, he thinks it is possible the crop size could shrink further in September.
Is the Illinois Corn Crop 212 BPA?
USDA projected a statewide yield in Illinois of 212 bu. per acre which would be a record and Gulke thinks that it is a heavy lift.He’s basing that on the tours his and other private commodity firms have conducted.
In northern Illinois they were disappointed with the corn as they found the girth of the ears was not as good as they thought and there were some pollination problems that resulted in tip back.
“We had a hard time finding 18 around.A lot of 16s.I don’t think we found one 20 around. If we did it was only 25 long. So you would like to see something 18 around and 36 to 42 long and that wasn’t the case and they’re finding the same thing in the good areas,” he explains.
Gulke estimates the corn crop is 7% or 14 bu. per acre less than last year and USDA is well above that yet.So, he is anxious to see if the Pro Farmer Crop Tour comes up with the same results.
Did the WASDE Confirm Early Harvest Lows in Corn?
This week USDA did confirm the U.S. corn crop is a billion bushels smaller than a year ago and it may be getting smaller.Still, Gulke says there are some in the trade that think the corn market needs to return to the August lows scored the last two years.
Gulke thinks this could be the year that does not happen.In fact, he believes the August WASDE confirmed early pre-harvest lows.
“Yeah, I mean, I bet a lot of money on it and a lot of clients’ money on it. And that’s been a lot of money ago,” he says.
Capture the Carry in the Market
Even with the rally in corn this week the market is saying it does not need corn right now and that is reflected in the carry. The carry between September to March is around $.38 and then another $.15 to July, so a $.50 carry in corn.
For farmers with on-farm storage, Gulke says they can take advantage of that carry and make a profit. “Those that are still holding 2025 corn they could sell the crop that’s in the bin that’s dry for fall and if fall moisture is okay, maybe you deliver your fall corn on that, and you keep what you’ve got in the bin without having to dry it,” he adds.
Gulke invested in grain bins years ago and says using these types of marketing strategies has made him money and paid for the storage facilities several times over. “I call it artificially fixing the basis.”
For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.
