Election Day: Vote

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The race for the White House comes to an end tonight. The candidate that captures at least 270 Electoral College votes wins. Most voting stations on the US east coast opened their doors at 7 a.m. ET, with the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida among the first to close. The last round of national polls showed Clinton with a steady but narrow lead over Trump.

In the key state of Florida, more than 6 million people have already made their choice in early voting, exceeding the total number of votes cast in the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore. And, the number of Hispanics who voted early in Florida this year is about as many as voted in total four years ago. The same story holds in heavily Hispanic areas across the country, whether the Latino neighborhoods of Las Vegas or the Texas counties along the Rio Grande.

Several key Senate races are very close, with control of that chamber up in the air. The Republicans are expected to keep control of the House, as it is unlikely the Democrats will garner the net gain of 30 seats needed to take House leadership.

Cook Political Report sees Clinton win, Democratic control of Senate and GOP maintaining control of House. Charlie Cook today writes, “It’s not my style or expertise to put a specific percentage on Clinton’s chances of winning, but suffice it to say, it’s a really big number.”

Cook Political Report Senior Editor and Senate expert Jennifer Duffy believes that Democrats will win the majority, but sees the absence of a wave as their biggest obstacle to a comfortable majority. Duffy predicts that Democratic gains are likely to be in the range of four or five seats, with six seats a possibility if they have a very good night. The Democrats’ fortunes hang on four seats that are still toss-ups: the open seat in Indiana and the seats now held by Blunt (Missouri), Ayotte (New Hampshire), and Burr (North Carolina).

The Cook Report’s House editor David Wasserman’s model is pointing to a Democratic gain of around 12 or 13 seats, plus or minus five, which would mean a Democratic gain of between seven and 18 seats.

Comments: The presidential race could be over early if Florida goes for Clinton – as her people tend to think will occur. This election may see the rise of the Hispanic voter and if so, Republicans are going to have to find a way to climb another wall, this time a Latino voter resistance hurdle.

If Trump wins it would shock more than a few people and definitely pollsters. The key for any Trump victory would be that the polls simply could not get an accurate reading of voter intentions.

The Senate outcome could take a while, with several very close contests in Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania the ones we are watching closely. The GOP’s current Senate control could rest on one state: New Hampshire.

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material; therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.