Grain and livestock markets end mixed on Thursday.
Kent Beadle of Paradigm Futures says, unlike the financial markets, the ag futures did not see the positive reaction to the ITC court ruling declaring the “Independence Day” tariffs as illegal.
“There is some thought in the trade this may slow down the trade deals that are being negotiated by the Trump Administration as they have lost tariff leverage. So there is some uncertainty,” he explains.
Funds Sink Corn
Corn ended lower as funds continue to be relentless sellers and there was also bear spreading which pushed the July contract to a close below the $4.50 mark.
“Funds have been pushing the short side of the market as open interest has been climbing,” he says.
Beadle says this is also about the more favorable weather forecast with drier conditions in state’s like Ohio to help with planting, while other areas receive beneficial moisture and some heat.
Demand has been strong as noted with more than 8 million bu. of flash export sales to Mexico and unknown destinations announced Thursday morning and the ethanol production report also showed higher production by 20,000 barrels per day over the previous week.
Soybeans Bounce Off Support
Soybeans saw early pressure but closed mixed with July higher on bull spreading. However, all the contracts bounced and closed above several key moving averages.
“It was impressive and its largely tied to strong crush margins in the processing sector,” states Beadle.
Wheat Bounces
Wheat futures bounced on short covering as its closing in on the end of the month and funds are taking some profits. However, Beadle thinks wheat prices are at a value level that is seeing some end user interest surface.
Plus, there is a realization with lower ratings that the crop is getting smaller, not larger and there may be some supply risk in especially hard red spring wheat.
Cattle Chase Cash
Cattle futures had a nice rally on the heels of higher cash trade development...again.
Some light trade developed during the session in the South at $221-223, versus mostly $220 last week.
In the North $234-$235 live sales were reported, with dressed business at $368 to $370, up $6 to $8 from last week’s weighted average, a few deals as high as $375 in the East.
Choice boxed beef values were also up another $1.25 at noon at $366.67, the second highest level since COVID in 2020.
Lean Hogs Take a Break
Lean hogs futures set back in nearby contracts as Beadle says the June contract at around $100 and even some of the deferred contacts are offering some profitable margins. So the pressure came from hedge selling.
