Grains end higher on Friday after the WASDE.
So, was the market trading the report or was it weather and fund short covering?
Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing, thinks weather trumped the WASDE, although the numbers were a bit constructive for corn coming in below expectations.
So what will the market bulls need in the weather forecast to keep buying?
Nellinger says if rains continue to delay planting and wheat areas like Russia and the southwest Plains continue to miss rains that could continue to drive buying interest.
Plus, the market will be awaiting new South American production numbers from Conab and will pay close attention to Brazil soybean production after the recent flooding in the far South.
As far as the WASDE, with corn acreage dropping to 90 million acres USDA lowered production 482 million bushels from last year. Plus, USDA lowered old crop corn carryover 100 million bushels to 2.022 billion bushels. That in turn lowered the carry in for 2024-25 resulting in ending stocks of 2.1 billion.
South American corn production was also lowered about 4 million metric tons between Brazil and Argentina.
Nellinger says that isn’t wildly bullish, but it was below trade estimates and combined with weather and higher wheat prices the corn market followed.
The wheat market saw a neutral report with all wheat production at 1.86 billion bushels, above last year but below estimates. New crop ending stocks were below estimates but above last year at 766 million bushels.
However, wheat made new highs for the move. Nellinger says the market continues to trade dry conditions and frost damage in Russia and funds have been covering their short positions with all three classes trading above the 200 day moving average.
The WASDE was bearish for soybeans with 3 million additional acres and record yield the production figure was also a record at 4.45 billion bushels. That pushed new crop ending stocks to 445 million bushels and 105 million above last year.
Nellinger says that was not friendly, but soybeans followed corn and wheat higher.
